Perspectives: Episode 112 – The Times They Are A-Changin'

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses what a multi-polar world might look like, NATO’s fragile state and how the world trade map is being re-drawn.

(1:30) It has been easy to get stuck in the weeds over the past 57 days, since President Trumps inauguration, so lets take a helicopter view and talk about US exceptionalism. For decades, the US has been the dominant force in global politics, economics, and military power. But today, we’re seeing cracks in that dominance. How do you see this playing out?

(3:08) Interesting. And politically, are we seeing a decline in soft power?

(4:05) So, does this mean the US has reached peak superpower status?

(4:31) What does this multipolar world look like?

(8:10) Okay, so we have these competing power centres. What does that mean for global stability and for investors in general?

(10:44) So what’s your biggest takeaway about the multipolar world we’re entering?

(11:35) Its truly fascinating. The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is one of the biggest geopolitical changes of our time, and it’s happening faster than most people realize.

(11:46) That brings us to NATO. The alliance that defined the Cold War and kept the West united for so long through so many challenging times - could we really be seeing its end? Gerard Minack, our Independent Investment Committee member said it is not dead yet but it is on life support.

(12:50) But hasn’t NATO expanded recently? Finland and Sweden are joining—doesn’t that strengthen the alliance?

(13:31) So, if NATO were to dissolve or become irrelevant, what would the world look like? What would take its place?

(14:51) Alright, let’s shift our focus to something that affects not just governments and corporations but everyday people - the ongoing tariff and trade war. This conflict is now reshaping global supply chains in profound ways. We’ve seen waves of tariffs, retaliatory measures, and efforts to decouple economies. How is this reshaping global trade, and what does it mean for businesses and consumers?

(17:20) Okay, so tariffs didn’t quite work as planned. But how did they affect global supply chains?

(18:27) With this new reality taking shape, who are the winners and losers?