Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.
CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0
This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celh
Chapters:
0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion
1:13 Sponsor: Trata
2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge
4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch
7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani
8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius
10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal
12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?
16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey
18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?
22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk
26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?
31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate
38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage
43:38 Wrap-up
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Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/