Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes
"It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"📆 3 December 2025
🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.
Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.
If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.
Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.
Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend.
Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence.
Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.
Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.
Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.
Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.
SA tried three times to get a budget passed.
Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises.
Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.
US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.
By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.
Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.
Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.
Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.
Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:
❌ slow
❌ bad at text
❌ struggles with edits
NanoBanana + Gemini 3:
⚡ insanely fast
🔠 perfect text edits
🎨 clean output
Alphabet has:
💰 massive free cash flow
🌐 billions of users
📢 advertising infrastructure
→ Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).
Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.
Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:
⬇️ Only Meta is below.
Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.
Conclusion:
🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.
More insights coming in the Power Hour.
[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]
🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks UglyTrump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively.
Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.
Breaking support levels:
⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.
Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:
🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.
₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.
[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]
🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright SpotsQ3 2025 GDP:
📈 +0.5% QoQ
📈 +2.1% YoY
🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.
Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.
Reasons:
👍 GDP uptick
⬆️ Credit upgrades
⬇️ Lower expected inflation
⬇️ Lower rates coming
🟩 Off the grey list
Valuations:
Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×
Yields: high single digits
Winners depend on style:
💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank
⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB
🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)
Formerly Capital & Counties.
Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.
Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.
Fundamentals:
💰 Single-digit PE (~8)
📉 Yield 2.7%
📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10
Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.
SA REITs had:
🚀 Huge 2024
📈 Strong 2025
Many now trade around NAV:
Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV
Octodec → still at discount
Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.
Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.
If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.
Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.
Small caps that surprised everyone.
Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.
A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.
As always:
💙 Look after yourself.
🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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