Hyper Capex Spending | Junior Miner Pain

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🌍 This week in markets

Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️ Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮‍💨 Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿ A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉

🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle

2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included The hyperscalers:
Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️
The "shovel sellers":
Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC 🧑‍🏭🪓
Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

📊 Stocks & charts

Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts ✅ Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀

🤖 Software shock & AI disruption

Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬 Reality check:
Niche software may struggle Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace

🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies

Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️ Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥 Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️

🌐 The debasement trade

Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉 Key takeaway:
This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢
Governments reduce debt via:
Inflation Currency weakness

🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers

Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁 Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦
Forward PE near 10 Analysts broadly constructive

⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard

Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes* The commodity may be in the ground – but:
Extraction is complex Capital is hard to raise Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧
Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢 Even experienced operators fail

📢 Events & deadlines

Power Hour – 19 February
🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank
Tax-free investing beyond TFSA ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
Important reminder ⏰
Many providers have early contribution deadlines Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

🙌 Wrapping up

CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving Stay cautious, stay curious

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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