396: Building the Hyperliquid of Sports: Inside Pred's On-Chain Prediction Exchange with guest speaker Amit Mahensaria from Pred

EPISODE DESCRIPTION

I sat down with Amit Mahensaria, co-founder of Pred, to explore why the $500 billion sports betting industry is ripe for disruption. Amit isn't a typical Web3 founder , he came in as a degen, a 22-year sports trader who got tired of the house always winning. In this episode, we dig into how Pred is building a trustless, peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange on Base, why live sports demand a completely different architecture than general prediction markets like Polymarket, and what it really takes to build an on-chain order book that can keep up with a goal being scored in real time. We also get into the state of the prediction market industry, who's going to win the space, and why Amit believes the Hyperliquid of sports trading hasn't been built yet , until now. 

DISCLAIMER

Nothing mentioned in this podcast is investment advice and please do your own research. It would mean a lot if you can leave a review of this podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and share this podcast with a friend. 

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CONNECT

Pred Website: https://www.pred.app/trade/fif-cdr-den-2026-06-03

Twitter/X - Pred: https://x.com/predofficial

Web3 with Sam Kamani: https://www.web3pod.xyz/

KEY POINTS WITH TIMESTAMPS

• [00:02] Sam introduces Amit Mahensaria, co-founder of Pred, a sports-native prediction exchange at the intersection of AI, crypto, and blockchain

• [01:11] Amit shares his background , not a typical Web3 founder, but a 22-year sports trader and DeFi degen since the 2020 DeFi Summer

• [02:32] His co-founder is a Web3 OG and former product and design head of Binance India

• [03:38] The origin story: Amit built a peer-to-peer sports trading community 7 years ago after getting frustrated with sportsbook middlemen always taking a cut

• [05:43] The core thesis , middlemen are being removed from every industry, and sports betting is one of the last frontiers where the house still always wins

• [07:16] Why general-purpose prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are not designed for sports UX or speed

• [10:27] The biggest technical challenges: building an off-chain order book with on-chain matching, achieving 10x lower latency than competitors, and managing correlated multi-outcome order books in real time

• [14:44] The Venn diagram problem , crypto users and frequent sports traders overlap by around 40%, poker bettors and crypto users by 60%

• [16:29] How Pred abstracts crypto complexity away for mainstream users, and partnerships with fund.xyz and swap.com for on-ramping

• [17:47] Key product learnings from 200-250 beta users over 8 weeks , sports UX must look nothing like a financial trading terminal

• [19:47] Why Pred chose to build on Base , speed via Flash Blocks, distribution, and a roadmap conversation with Jesse Pollak

• [21:55] The prediction market landscape has over 120 projects, but the space is still very early , the Hyperliquid of prediction markets hasn't emerged yet

• [25:54] Pred is coming out of invite-only beta and opening to the public by end of month, starting with soccer only

• [28:46] Advice for Web3 founders , do not launch a points program before you have PMF; GTM too early will kill you

• [32:22] Long-term vision: a trustless, globally accessible sports trading exchange where users own the platform and trust every trade

• [34:09] Liquidity management strategy , a transparent algo-driven vault similar to Hyperliquid's HLP, plus easy API onboarding for sports-focused market makers

• [38:20] Current asks: users who want to trade and give feedback, sports-focused market makers, and a larger fundraise planned post-public launch