About
This article is about the so-called 'scramble for the Arctic'. This would be a story of high farce rather than the high North but for threats made by the current US administration to forcibly annex Greenland – the territory of a NATO ally – on the spurious grounds that the island is 'covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place', and America must 'own' Greenland as a matter of security to prevent imagined Russian or Chinese ownership. Republican Senator Randy Fine has introduced a Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act that would authorise the White House to annex Greenland 'by any means necessary'. Control of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) is cited as a key reason why America must annex Greenland, ignoring the wishes of Greenlanders and setting aside what would be a gross assault on Denmark and more widely Europe and NATO.
People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in Greenland
No Chinese warship has ever visited Greenland. There is no evidence a PLAN nuclear submarine has ever deployed to Greenland waters either. How would it get there and why would it anyway. At the time of writing of this article there are no commercial Chinese ships near Greenland either. The simple matter of logging on MarineTraffic and checking the AIS identities of vessels in these waters would tell you this.
Chinese mines in Greenland
There are no Chinese mines in Greenland. There never have been. It is unlikely there ever would be except in partnership with other Western companies. There was a period (2011-2018) when China expressed interest in mining and infrastructure projects but it came to nothing. Shenghe Resources currently has a 10.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld rare earths project. However, this project, led by the Australian Energy Transition Minerals, was halted in 2021 over uranium contamination fears and is subject to an $11.4 billion damages suit. It is unlikely it will proceed.
The Russian Navy (Northern Fleet) in Greenland
No Russian warship has ever visited Greenland. Or will. A Russian warship would not be welcomed in a NATO territory.
Russian Naval Aviation is moribund and reliant on the small number of Soviet-era aircraft that remain airworthy. The Northern Fleet surface fleet rests on three modern frigates, only one of which ever sails at a time. The nuclear submarine fleet is finally leaving behind the troubled 90s and noughties with the commissioning of the Yasen-M and Borei-A class boats. It needs to – the old Soviet nuclear boats had become a menace to everyone (and indeed Western countries provided extensive financial and technical assistance in their decommissioning). The Fleet's best conventional capabilities are the Kinzhal and Tsirkon hypersonic missiles – which Putin is inordinately proud of – but Ukrainian air defenders have proved Russian hypersonic missiles can, in fact, be downed.
Northern Fleet naval towns and bases on the Kola Peninsula are a picture of dilapidation and decline (which US intelligence perfectly knows). Just this New Year, districts of Severomorsk – almost all naval families or contractors – woke up without heat of electricity, in minus 30 degrees. If you could engage in a conversation with a sailor of the Northern Fleet, they would be much less inclined to talk about competition in the Arctic and more likely to vent views on the post-Soviet squalor and humiliation of their daily lives.
Soviet Military Power 1988 (DoD)
When a threat truly existed in the Arctic. NATO monitored between 130-140 Northern Fleet Russian submarines. Today, as many as two Russian nuclear submarines may be on patrol.
There are no Russian commercial ships in Greenland waters either at this moment. Check MarineTraffic. The absolute and urgent priority for Russian commercial shipping currently is the 'shadow fleet' and associated oil and gas exports, not Greenland.
Russian mines in Greenland
There are no Russian mines in Greenland. There never have been. There won't be. Russian mining is in crisis: high interest rates, under-...
People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in Greenland
No Chinese warship has ever visited Greenland. There is no evidence a PLAN nuclear submarine has ever deployed to Greenland waters either. How would it get there and why would it anyway. At the time of writing of this article there are no commercial Chinese ships near Greenland either. The simple matter of logging on MarineTraffic and checking the AIS identities of vessels in these waters would tell you this.
Chinese mines in Greenland
There are no Chinese mines in Greenland. There never have been. It is unlikely there ever would be except in partnership with other Western companies. There was a period (2011-2018) when China expressed interest in mining and infrastructure projects but it came to nothing. Shenghe Resources currently has a 10.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld rare earths project. However, this project, led by the Australian Energy Transition Minerals, was halted in 2021 over uranium contamination fears and is subject to an $11.4 billion damages suit. It is unlikely it will proceed.
The Russian Navy (Northern Fleet) in Greenland
No Russian warship has ever visited Greenland. Or will. A Russian warship would not be welcomed in a NATO territory.
Russian Naval Aviation is moribund and reliant on the small number of Soviet-era aircraft that remain airworthy. The Northern Fleet surface fleet rests on three modern frigates, only one of which ever sails at a time. The nuclear submarine fleet is finally leaving behind the troubled 90s and noughties with the commissioning of the Yasen-M and Borei-A class boats. It needs to – the old Soviet nuclear boats had become a menace to everyone (and indeed Western countries provided extensive financial and technical assistance in their decommissioning). The Fleet's best conventional capabilities are the Kinzhal and Tsirkon hypersonic missiles – which Putin is inordinately proud of – but Ukrainian air defenders have proved Russian hypersonic missiles can, in fact, be downed.
Northern Fleet naval towns and bases on the Kola Peninsula are a picture of dilapidation and decline (which US intelligence perfectly knows). Just this New Year, districts of Severomorsk – almost all naval families or contractors – woke up without heat of electricity, in minus 30 degrees. If you could engage in a conversation with a sailor of the Northern Fleet, they would be much less inclined to talk about competition in the Arctic and more likely to vent views on the post-Soviet squalor and humiliation of their daily lives.
Soviet Military Power 1988 (DoD)
When a threat truly existed in the Arctic. NATO monitored between 130-140 Northern Fleet Russian submarines. Today, as many as two Russian nuclear submarines may be on patrol.
There are no Russian commercial ships in Greenland waters either at this moment. Check MarineTraffic. The absolute and urgent priority for Russian commercial shipping currently is the 'shadow fleet' and associated oil and gas exports, not Greenland.
Russian mines in Greenland
There are no Russian mines in Greenland. There never have been. There won't be. Russian mining is in crisis: high interest rates, under-...