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Why mortgage rates don’t follow the OCR
12 July 2026

Why mortgage rates don’t follow the OCR

The Prosperity Project

About

The OCR has risen, but does that automatically mean your mortgage rate will rise with it?

Economist and commentator Bernard Hickey explains what really drives fixed mortgage rates, why New Zealand’s banks remain exceptionally profitable, and whether the Reserve Bank has moved too soon while the economy remains weak.

He also decodes the jargon surrounding monetary policy — including hawks, doves, neutral rates, LVRs and DTIs — and considers whether New Zealand can build a functioning economy without relying on house prices to keep climbing.

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