#431 Raoul Pal: The Economy We Know Ends by 2030 — and Why We’ll Never See a Big Recession Again

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and Exponential Age Asset Management and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia to discuss his new book, The Everything Code. He argues that liquidity drives nearly all market returns, and that governments now service their debts by debasing money at about 8% a year. That, he says, is why home prices outrun incomes and why traditional assets like real estate, gold and a 60/40 portfolio don’t actually get you ahead. He calls the November 5 sell-off noise in a market short on liquidity, and makes the case that AI isn’t a bubble: demand is infinite, the hyperscalers have “more money than God,” and every layer of the AI stack is highly profitable. Pal explains why he no longer believes big systemic recessions can happen, since debasement works like a put option we all pay for. He also explains why he thinks the economy as we know it starts to break down by 2030, as AI agents become economic actors. Plus: why crypto is built for an agent economy, why he’s buying digital art, and why being human, through attention and experiences, becomes more valuable.

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Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1804094196?th=1

Website: https://raoulpal.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: why traditional assets won’t get you ahead

0:25 Welcome Raoul Pal and The Everything Code

1:24 The macro setup: liquidity is restricted

2:41 A mid-cycle pause

3:03 How liquidity actually works

3:45 Aging populations, debt and “the greatest chart in macro”

5:03 Where new money comes from

6:14 The only two assets that beat debasement

7:53 The 8% debasement hurdle

8:42 Why home prices outrun incomes

12:16 The November 5 sell-off

14:48 Why this isn’t 2000 or the railroads

15:32 Anthropic and supernormal profits

18:58 Could politics stop AI?

20:03 Behind the “we’re all going to die” narrative

21:51 Debunking the AI bubble bear case

24:04 Why big recessions are a thing of the past

25:24 Debasement as a put option

28:22 How 2020 changed his mind

29:39 The economic singularity by 2030

33:06 Agents multiplying at a double exponential

33:44 When AI agents start building businesses

36:33 How to prepare: invest in it

37:13 Why crypto is built for agents

39:31 Why he’s buying digital art

41:24 AI as the Fourth Turning

42:22 What humans will do: attention and experiences

45:15 His contrarian call

46:51 Where to find Raoul