#427 Chris Whalen: Warsh’s Credibility Is Eroding, Private Credit Beats Regulators, Mortgage Pain Ahead

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock.

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Links:    

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Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome to The Wrap

1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics?

3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding?

4:38 Midterm predictions

6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed?

7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen

9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era?

12:02 What people are missing about Warsh

13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators

16:41 What it means for annuity holders

17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem

18:37 Are the banks exposed?

19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae

22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM?

25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit

27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory?

29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock

31:03 What to watch after the midterms

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