Jaime Carrasco: Gold | Why Central Banks Continue Buying in an Uncertain Time

In this interview, your host Tom Bodrovics and senior portfolio manager Jaime Carrasco analyze the recent volatility in precious metals, framing it as a typical and expected part of a secular bull market driven by a fundamental global monetary shift. Carrasco argues that gold is money and everything else is credit, with the current fiat currency system in terminal decline. He points to rising global interest rates not as an attractive yield but as a signal of bond market instability, exacerbated by soaring government debt and aging populations. This environment is devaluing all fiat currencies, which is why central banks worldwide are aggressively buying physical gold.

Carrasco contrasts the extreme overvaluation in tech and AI sectors, exemplified by SpaceX's potential valuation, with the undervalued gold and silver mining sector. He notes that high-quality producers are generating strong free cash flow, increasing dividends, and buying back shares, while also consolidating the industry through acquisitions. This creates a massive opportunity, as institutional and retail ownership of precious metals remains near historic lows. A core part of his strategy involves playing the gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes will revert from its current level toward the historical mining ratio, driven by a structural supply deficit and growing industrial demand for silver in technology and green energy.

The central theme is the importance of disciplined, long-term asset allocation rather than emotional trading. Carrasco recommends a minimum 30% portfolio allocation to the sector as a hedge against currency devaluation and systemic risk. He emphasizes direct share ownership over ETFs to avoid counterparty risk and focuses on companies with strong management, quality assets in safe jurisdictions, and low production costs. Ultimately, he views the current pullback as a buying opportunity, positioning for a historic wealth transfer as the global monetary system realigns around gold.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:46 - Metals Market Volatility Discussed
00:01:34 - Why Own Gold and Silver
00:02:55 - Rising Interest Rates Impact
00:05:44 - Fiat Currencies Devaluation
00:07:29 - Stock Market Overvaluation Concerns
00:08:44 - Silver for AI Infrastructure
00:12:04 - Historical Market Comparisons
00:18:55 - Physical Share Ownership Benefits
00:28:16 - Gold Silver Ratio Strategy
00:32:21 - Silver Supply Deficit Analysis
00:34:22 - Sector Underownership Reasons
00:40:23 - Dividend Strategy in Producers
00:47:56 - Concluding Thoughts