About
Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons.
Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia.
Timestamps
0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri
1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller
1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets
2:47: Intro ends
4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins
5:12: Kylasa (@aenews) side bet with Mehndiratta (@tenad0me)
5:51: Odds on nuclear war
6:01: Anti-nuclear norms
6:55: Why India and Pakistan haven't used nukes
7:34: Terrorism vs. nukes
8:46: India's no first use doctrine
10:05: Variance
10:18: Anthropic effects
10:52: Nuclear taboos
10:58: Why Pakistan won't transfer nukes
11:36: Polymarket market on nuclear detonation
11:45: Segment ends
12:00: Interview with Miller begins
12:17: Miller's background
12:46: Rumsfeld
14:27: Chougule
14:44: Washingtonian profile of Chougule
15:06: Intralot
15:26: Lotteries offering sports betting
15:58: Prediction markets
16:46: Business of prediction markets
17:02: Amazon
18:36: How Miller got into lottery business
19:43: Lottery expansion into sports betting
20:46: Women
21:19: Lottery regulation
21:44: How lotteries gained acceptance
24:10: Demographic of prediction market users
25:02: Forecasting as an ambassador
26:07: Black swan events
26:20: History
26:30: Intelligence before Russian invasion of Ukraine
28:59: Data in diplomacy
29:47: Iraq War
31:23: AI
32:04: Prediction markets for diplomacy
37:09: Using prediction markets to anticipate bad events
37:36: Prediction markets for resource allocation decisions
37:52: Medical research
39:43: Segment ends
39:57: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetups
Trade on markets related to nuclear weapons and war at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Join us for the final DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup on Wednesday, December 17 from 6-9pm at the Flying Mexican on Capitol Hill, close to the Eastern Market metro station (blue/orange lines), NOT our usual Rocklands BBQ location in Arlington. Be sure to show up on the correct side of the river this month!
Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Thanks to our sponsor, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed!
Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.
This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork
Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv