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Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 5.
[00:00 | Speaker 3] The discussion begins with intensity: “Offense, play fast. Defense, swarm. Swarm and tackle.” The repeated demand to “out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” and “Leave no doubt tonight!” frames a theme of urgency and dominance. [00:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces the Week 5 show, joking about Vanderbilt’s surprising success and admitting their bets went 0-2 after a 2-0 streak, showing how volatile the season can be. [02:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte reflects on UConn: “The UConn play was the wrong side,” noting they had chances but “couldn’t capitalize and couldn’t stop Kelly on the run.” He highlights Vanderbilt scoring 72, their most since 1918, underscoring how explosive games can get. [05:30 | Griffin Warner] Alabama vs Georgia comes up with Alabama +3 and total 52. [06:15 | Lonte Smith] Lonte stresses “My number is exactly three,” pointing to both teams’ weak pass rush. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per pass and has just three sacks, while Alabama has only 31 pressures. He predicts “an explosion of big plays” and loves the over 52.5, leaning slightly to Georgia at home. [12:40 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks about shifts in program power. [13:20 | Lonte Smith] Lonte explains, “Bama is second tier to what Georgia is doing,” crediting Kirby Smart’s continuity and NFL pipeline, while contrasting Saban’s defensive style with DeBoer’s offensive focus. [15:00 | Griffin Warner] Next is LSU at Ole Miss, with Ole Miss -1.5 and total 54.5. [15:45 | Lonte Smith] Lonte breaks down the quarterback dilemma: Trinidad Chambliss has been “nothing short of sensational,” while Austin Simmons is turnover-prone. LSU can exploit Ole Miss’s weakness, “outside the top 115 in rush success rate.” He says, “The over is good regardless of quarterback.” [21:20 | Griffin Warner] Moving to Ohio State at Washington, Griffin notes the line moved from -12.5 to -8.5. [22:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte cites, “Five and nine straight up for Power Four quarterbacks making their first road start.” Washington has a 21-game home win streak, one of the best in the nation. He suggests betting Washington early before Ohio State’s depth shows, expecting an eventual Buckeye win by eight or nine points. [28:15 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks why bettors move against “the number one program.” [28:40 | Lonte Smith] Lonte answers that sharps love home dogs, adding Washington’s momentum, dual-threat QB De’Mon Williams, and cross-country travel factors make this a prime spot. [31:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces Oregon at Penn State, Oregon +3.5. [31:30 | Lonte Smith] Lonte says, “I love Penn State in this spot.” He criticizes Drew Aller, “outside the top 100 in QBR,” and weak receivers, but expects Penn State’s elite defense in a whiteout to overwhelm Oregon despite Dante Moore’s strong play. He predicts a 9-10 point Penn State win. [37:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin highlights the impact of a night game at Happy Valley and travel challenges. [38:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte agrees, noting Penn State’s balance and defensive edge. [39:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin offers promo code “Blitz20.” [41:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte’s best bet is Illinois +7 vs USC, citing USC’s struggles traveling east and poor defense: “124th in rush success rate allowed.” With RB Aiden Lowry returning and QB Luke Altmyer’s legs, Illinois can bounce back. [44:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin agrees on the full touchdown value. His best bet is over 54.5 in LSU vs Ole Miss, banking on scoring regardless of quarterback uncertainty. [46:00 | Closing] Both hosts thank listeners, preview October matchups, and hope to rebound with winners.
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[00:00 | Speaker 3] The discussion begins with intensity: “Offense, play fast. Defense, swarm. Swarm and tackle.” The repeated demand to “out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” and “Leave no doubt tonight!” frames a theme of urgency and dominance. [00:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces the Week 5 show, joking about Vanderbilt’s surprising success and admitting their bets went 0-2 after a 2-0 streak, showing how volatile the season can be. [02:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte reflects on UConn: “The UConn play was the wrong side,” noting they had chances but “couldn’t capitalize and couldn’t stop Kelly on the run.” He highlights Vanderbilt scoring 72, their most since 1918, underscoring how explosive games can get. [05:30 | Griffin Warner] Alabama vs Georgia comes up with Alabama +3 and total 52. [06:15 | Lonte Smith] Lonte stresses “My number is exactly three,” pointing to both teams’ weak pass rush. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per pass and has just three sacks, while Alabama has only 31 pressures. He predicts “an explosion of big plays” and loves the over 52.5, leaning slightly to Georgia at home. [12:40 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks about shifts in program power. [13:20 | Lonte Smith] Lonte explains, “Bama is second tier to what Georgia is doing,” crediting Kirby Smart’s continuity and NFL pipeline, while contrasting Saban’s defensive style with DeBoer’s offensive focus. [15:00 | Griffin Warner] Next is LSU at Ole Miss, with Ole Miss -1.5 and total 54.5. [15:45 | Lonte Smith] Lonte breaks down the quarterback dilemma: Trinidad Chambliss has been “nothing short of sensational,” while Austin Simmons is turnover-prone. LSU can exploit Ole Miss’s weakness, “outside the top 115 in rush success rate.” He says, “The over is good regardless of quarterback.” [21:20 | Griffin Warner] Moving to Ohio State at Washington, Griffin notes the line moved from -12.5 to -8.5. [22:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte cites, “Five and nine straight up for Power Four quarterbacks making their first road start.” Washington has a 21-game home win streak, one of the best in the nation. He suggests betting Washington early before Ohio State’s depth shows, expecting an eventual Buckeye win by eight or nine points. [28:15 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks why bettors move against “the number one program.” [28:40 | Lonte Smith] Lonte answers that sharps love home dogs, adding Washington’s momentum, dual-threat QB De’Mon Williams, and cross-country travel factors make this a prime spot. [31:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces Oregon at Penn State, Oregon +3.5. [31:30 | Lonte Smith] Lonte says, “I love Penn State in this spot.” He criticizes Drew Aller, “outside the top 100 in QBR,” and weak receivers, but expects Penn State’s elite defense in a whiteout to overwhelm Oregon despite Dante Moore’s strong play. He predicts a 9-10 point Penn State win. [37:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin highlights the impact of a night game at Happy Valley and travel challenges. [38:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte agrees, noting Penn State’s balance and defensive edge. [39:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin offers promo code “Blitz20.” [41:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte’s best bet is Illinois +7 vs USC, citing USC’s struggles traveling east and poor defense: “124th in rush success rate allowed.” With RB Aiden Lowry returning and QB Luke Altmyer’s legs, Illinois can bounce back. [44:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin agrees on the full touchdown value. His best bet is over 54.5 in LSU vs Ole Miss, banking on scoring regardless of quarterback uncertainty. [46:00 | Closing] Both hosts thank listeners, preview October matchups, and hope to rebound with winners.
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