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Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 4.
Early Reflections (0:32 – 4:26)
Griffin celebrated the “first 2-0 of the season.” Lonte added, “Great weekend for us going 2-0… all the big games delivered.” Griffin recalled missing Tennessee-Georgia moments at an Arkansas watch party, while Lonte defended his Southern Miss pick, saying they “dominated this game” over App State.
Market Volatility (4:27 – 6:40)
Griffin called college line swings “chaos compared to the NFL or MLB.” Lonte noted CLV matters only “55% on three-plus moves.”
Utah vs. Texas Tech (6:40 – 11:07)
Utah’s “60% rush success rate” and Morton’s road issues (“80 grade at home, under 60 away”) led Lonte to lean Utah/under, projecting “23-20.” Griffin agreed: Utah -3.
Michigan vs. Nebraska (11:43 – 14:33)
Underwood’s 114 yards, 2 TDs boost Michigan vs. Nebraska’s weak run defense (“outside top 120 EPA”). Lonte leaned Huskers as home dogs; Griffin backed that angle.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma (16:09 – 19:13)
Auburn’s defense “first in rush success rate allowed.” Lonte called for “23-20 or 20-17,” taking Auburn +6.5 and under. Griffin agreed, eyeing +7.
Illinois vs. Indiana (20:21 – 25:02)
Illinois’ veteran team and Duke road win contrasted with Indiana QB Mendoza, who “struggles against blitz and man coverage.” Lonte liked Illinois +4.5/over.
Best Bets (26:03 – 31:12)
Lonte: UConn -21 (UConn “top 15 in success rate” vs. Ball State’s defense “outside top 110”).
Griffin: Utah -3 (trust in home edge, QB splits).
Takeaway
Defense, weak schedules, and market inefficiencies drove every angle. Player stats (Underwood’s rushing, UConn’s efficiency) and team metrics (Auburn’s #1 defense) shaped sharp Week 4 picks.
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Early Reflections (0:32 – 4:26)
Griffin celebrated the “first 2-0 of the season.” Lonte added, “Great weekend for us going 2-0… all the big games delivered.” Griffin recalled missing Tennessee-Georgia moments at an Arkansas watch party, while Lonte defended his Southern Miss pick, saying they “dominated this game” over App State.
Market Volatility (4:27 – 6:40)
Griffin called college line swings “chaos compared to the NFL or MLB.” Lonte noted CLV matters only “55% on three-plus moves.”
Utah vs. Texas Tech (6:40 – 11:07)
Utah’s “60% rush success rate” and Morton’s road issues (“80 grade at home, under 60 away”) led Lonte to lean Utah/under, projecting “23-20.” Griffin agreed: Utah -3.
Michigan vs. Nebraska (11:43 – 14:33)
Underwood’s 114 yards, 2 TDs boost Michigan vs. Nebraska’s weak run defense (“outside top 120 EPA”). Lonte leaned Huskers as home dogs; Griffin backed that angle.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma (16:09 – 19:13)
Auburn’s defense “first in rush success rate allowed.” Lonte called for “23-20 or 20-17,” taking Auburn +6.5 and under. Griffin agreed, eyeing +7.
Illinois vs. Indiana (20:21 – 25:02)
Illinois’ veteran team and Duke road win contrasted with Indiana QB Mendoza, who “struggles against blitz and man coverage.” Lonte liked Illinois +4.5/over.
Best Bets (26:03 – 31:12)
Lonte: UConn -21 (UConn “top 15 in success rate” vs. Ball State’s defense “outside top 110”).
Griffin: Utah -3 (trust in home edge, QB splits).
Takeaway
Defense, weak schedules, and market inefficiencies drove every angle. Player stats (Underwood’s rushing, UConn’s efficiency) and team metrics (Auburn’s #1 defense) shaped sharp Week 4 picks.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices