When the Right Supply Chain Decision Arrives a Month Late

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When should a supply chain planner act before the forecast improves? If the likely error is small enough to manage and waiting would close the window to act, an earlier decision can be more valuable than a more accurate one a month later.

In this episode I speak with Benji Price, Co-founder and Chief Product Officer at Wild Ducks, about how to put that idea into practice. We look at how planners can account for the consequences of a stockout, use signals such as rainfall and drought to anticipate demand, and decide when an automated recommendation needs human approval.

Questions we cover

How should the cost of a stockout shape inventory decisions? · 2:37 and 5:12
Consider what happens to the customer when a part is missing. A missing tractor tyre can leave a customer unable to work, while a missing mirror may have far less impact. That difference matters when you decide which parts to keep in stock.

When should a planner override a system recommendation? · 6:03
Step in when you have information the system lacks. Benji gives the example of a planner who knows about an alternative supplier with a shorter lead time.

What leading indicators can improve a demand forecast? · 15:37
Benji describes a farm equipment supplier that looks at rainfall, heat, drought and factors affecting crop yields to anticipate changes that past sales alone may miss.

Which planning decisions should require human approval? · 22:19
Benji suggests setting limits based on what a decision could cost and how confident the system is. He gives human sign-off above $10,000 as an example of a threshold a business could choose.

 If disruption hit tomorrow, would you know where your supply chain was most exposed? In 15 minutes my free scorecard helps you assess 27 resilience statements, calculate your score, and turn the result into three priorities and a 30 day action plan. You can download the scorecard free at tomraftery.com/scorecard.

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