E81 - You Don’t Need Dave Ramsey, but Congress Sure Does!

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This episode dives into the macroeconomic chaos of 2025. Hans breaks down the yen carry trade, quantitative easing, and why the 10-year Treasury isn't budging despite Fed rate cuts. Brian connects it back to what matters: how you position your family's finances when nobody knows what's coming next.

The tension is real. On one hand, the debasement trade says go long equities—they're going to keep printing money and asset prices will rise. On the other hand, forward P/E ratios are at 23x, historically correlated with flat or negative real returns over the next decade. And then there's AI—a real time Black Swan breaking every economic model we thought we understood.

Chapters:

00:00 – Opening segment

01:25 – 2025 macro overview: building resilience against all outcomes

05:05 – Fed rate divergence: Japan raising while the US cuts

06:55 – The yen carry trade explained

10:30 – Quantitative easing: how the Fed creates money through primary dealers

13:45 – The Cantillon effect and why Wall Street benefits first

15:15 – Congress is the root cause, not the Fed

17:05 – Why Austrian economists were partially wrong about 2008 QE

19:30 – Will this round of QE hit faster?

21:45 – The bond market is calling the Fed's bluff

25:45 – The case for growth assets in an inflationary environment

28:00 – Forward P/E at 23x: what the metric means

34:05 – How forward P/E correlates with 10-year returns

40:30 – Why you need both growth and guaranteed savings

42:00 – The dual paths of wealth: protection and growth

45:15 – The house fire story50:10 – AI as the wildcard disrupting all economic models

53:05 – The slow-motion Black Swan we're living through

56:45 – The 1994 email clip: we're there again with AI

59:00 – Closing segment

Key Takeaways:

Two Narratives, One Strategy: The inflation/debasement trade says buy growth assets. Elevated P/E ratios say expect flat returns. Both are valid—which is why you need exposure to both growth and guarantees.

The Fed Isn't the Root Problem: Congress can't stop spending. The Fed enables it by monetizing debt through quantitative easing. Until spending stops, money printing won't stop.

The Bond Market Doesn't Believe the Fed: Rate cuts should lower mortgage rates. They haven't. The 10-year Treasury is rising because bond buyers are pricing in continued inflation and fiscal recklessness.

Forward P/E Matters: At 23x, historical data shows a strong correlation with flat inflation-adjusted returns over the next decade. That's not a prediction—it's a data point worth considering.

AI Changes Everything (Maybe): What took 30 years of internet development now happens in 12 months with AI. It could accelerate productivity beyond anything we've measured—or it could be a bubble. Nobody knows. Plan accordingly.

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendar ! 
The Fed just cut rates. Japan just raised theirs to a 30-year high. The bond market is calling the Fed's bluff. And Congress keeps maxing out credit cards while writing their own spending limit increases. What does this mean for your money—and how do you plan when the signals are screaming opposite things?

The Dual Paths of Wealth: You're always walking two roads—protection and growth. Whole life insurance designed for IBC lets you do both simultaneously: guaranteed savings you can leverage into growth assets without abandoning either path.