Paris Perspective #42: Young voters and the battle for Europe's middle ground - Christine Verger

Paris Perspective looks at the battlefield of the upcoming European elections, where the centrist majority must navigate the rocky terrain of a younger electorate that's being courted by the far right. 

While the polls have been described as a time of reckoning for Europe given the rise of the far right, it's unlikely the centrist conservative majority will be knocked off pole position.

The main battle for EU seats will, nevertheless, be fought between centrists and populists.

Turnout for European elections has waned since the first vote took place in 1979. The 2019 polls bucked this trend by breaking the 50 percent turnout threshold for the first time and 20 years.

In a post-Covid, economically rattled EU with two wars on its doorstep, indicators point to a significant rise in interest among Europeans in the upcoming June ballot.

The latest survey carried out by the European Parliament indicates that a record turnout of 68 percent could be expected.

Christine Verger, vice president of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris, acknowledges the heightened interest, attributing the 2019 surge to younger people's engagement on environmental issues.

"The protection of the environment and the fight against climate change resonated strongly with the youth, who viewed the European level as the appropriate platform for addressing such global challenges," she told RFI.

The EU's environmental concerns – once seen as a strong point – are also now viewed with scepticism. Agricultural protesters, in particular, accuse the bloc of creating problems rather than solutions.

Security in Europe

Verger says wider global security issues may instil a sense of fear among EU citizens, potentially impacting voter turnout and sentiment.

So how will young people react to these new challenges in June?

"This is very difficult to say, now that there are other issues which may justify the rise of participation and some positive views [regarding] the European Union. It's linked to the state of the world and the wars in Ukraine in the Middle East," she explains.

"This situation, and those new challenges, may lead many people in the EU towards a feeling of protection."

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National priorities

Verger believes new challenges such as immigration and identity issues may reshape young people's priorities as the battle between centrists and populists intensifies.

There has a drive to encourage young voters using the Paris metro to take an interest in the workings of the European Union as a force for good.

But could this backfire, with Eurosceptic and populist parties actually mobilising the youth vote in their favour?

"The main problem with the European election is that it's [actually] 27 national elections," Verger says.

Past efforts to enhance European unity, such as transnational lists and political families appointing pan-European candidates, hasn't worked so well, says Verger.

"This is because national governments and national parliaments are not inclined to accept European solutions for their campaigns," she says.

"They are still very attached to their national environment ... So in each country each situation is different."

Verger cites France as an example: "You have the Rassemblement National, but in 2019 they got a very good score – they have 23 members in the European Parliament, they may get a few more – but this will not have an influence on the result of the European elections."

Populists or radicals?

Concerns about the rise of far-right and populist parties has opened discussion on the political groups within the European Parliament.

Given the complexities of alliances and compromises between the parties, even if the far-right groups gain more seats, their differing views and lack of unity mean it's unlikely they will form a credible alternative.

Then there is confusion, Verger says, between what are called "populist" parties and "radical" parties.

"They are very different – and that's why they have difficulties. They don't share the same opinions on many issues, for instance, in relation to Russia and the position on the war in Ukraine," she says.

"You have the ID Group – Identity and Democracy – which is composed of two main parties, the French Rassemblement National and the German AfD [Alternative für Deutschland]

"In Germany, an AfD representative declared last weekend that there could be a referendum in Germany on leaving the European Union – what they call the Dexit – and the Rassemblement National in France is not at all in favour of leaving the European Union."

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Another right-wing political group, the ECR Group – European Conservatives and Reformists – was led by the British Conservatives before Brexit.

Now the UK has left the EU, the main group driving the ECR is Poland's PiS – the Law and Justice party – which recently lost elections in Poland.

"We don't know how they are going to evolve," Verger says.

"The far right and the populist radical parties have no chance to build a majority by themselves because in the European Parliament, everything is based on alliances and compromises."

While acknowledging the powerful emotional tactics employed by populists, Verger says that mainstream parties can effectively counter them through strategic communication.

EU repercussions for France 2027

Meanwhile, here in France, the 2024 European elections are seen by many as a precursor to the 2027 presidential elections, where a battle between President Emmanuel Macron's successor and the National Rally's Marine Le Pen looks almost certain.

Past EU elections have impacted French politics, such as in 1994 when the poor EU election performance of the Socialists led by Michel Rocard ruled him out as a contender for the French presidency.

The evolution of French national politics over the next three years – particularly the shift to the right in Macron's party and the rise of the National Rally – adds another layer to the complex dynamics that lie ahead.

Macron's has recently appointed 34-year-old Gabriel Attal as prime minister, while the National Rally have 28 year-old Jordan Bardella at the helm to reach out to the younger generation.

It's the interplay between European and national dynamics that will shape the narrative of the elections in June, says Verger.

"European issues will certainly play a role in the elections ... but Bardella will try to make [the June polls] a 100 percent national election," she says.

"The other parties – Renaissance and the Socialist Party – will try to make it as European as possible, in order to deconstruct it from the national context and try to show the positive aspects of the European Union for ordinary citizens."