Paris Perspective #35: The Great British Political Bake-Off – Jeremy Stubbs

In this edition we’re going to dive into the political Twilight Zone that is British politics to examine how the post-Brexit roller-coaster ride has evolved and expanded into a full-blown theme park as the UK installs its fifth prime minister in six years.

Many political observers have compared the implosion of the recent slew of Conservative UK governments to the antics of a tin-pot banana republic.

And it has been the half-baked economic policies of short-lived Treasury minister Kwasi Kwarteng – on the orders of "executive chef" Liz Truss – that led to them both being kicked out of the kitchen. 

Back in 2016, few could have predicted what a recipe for disaster Brexit would become for the British economy, let alone the country's political stability. 

Six years on one might be forgiven for feeling a sense of schadenfreude creeping into the oppositions' political narrative.

The populist maelstrom of jingoism is apparently clearing to unveil the stark reality of near-economic collapse.

Since prime ministers Cameron, May, Johnson and Truss have been taken off the menu, the rock of stability that was once the UK has been eroded off the sands and crashed on the shore.

Ok. Enough with the metaphors.

Return to stability

Following Liz Truss' resignation last Thursday, the Conservative Party's 1922 Committee gave their MPs a tight window to choose a new PM by this Friday.

By Monday, Boris Johnson had ruled out a comeback (for now), although he had garnered the support of at least 102 MPs that would have given him the threshold to join the hustings.

By midday, former chancellor Rishi Sunak and leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt were the only contenders in the race.

By lunchtime, Mordaunt had pulled out, clearing the way for Sunak to be named as Conservative Party leader and therefore the UK's next prime minister. 

As political machinations continued at breakneck speed in London, France's President Emmanuel Macron wished the UK "a rapid return to stability" as yet another leader bit the dust. 

On the question of stability, Jeremy Stubbs, who heads the Association of British Conservatives in Paris told RFI that he still remains hopeful. 

"It's true that there was a sudden drama surrounding Liz Truss, the sacking of a chancellor and other acts ... which showed her whole leadership and legitimacy were in doubt," he explains.

"What we can hope for or at least expect is a return to something like normality. That is to say a leader who knows what they're doing; who is not going to try any alternative medical cures on the economy."

Stubbs reckons Sunak's tenure at Number 10 will be neither exciting nor inspiring, "it's just going to be economic management of a traditional kind ... with probably a lot of bitter pills to swallow," he says.

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What Britons are bracing for

After the calamitous six-week reign of Liz Truss and former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s ill-conceived budget – which almost collapsed the British economy – what are Britons bracing for in the coming weeks?

"It's going to be very, very hard," Stubbs concedes, "because the Conservative reign in government began back in 2010 with austerity. Things seemed to be getting a little bit better, then the pandemic came." 

Stubbs believes that "all the signs" are there that the UK is going to be ushering in a new era of austerity.

"We're back where we started."

Even Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer admits that the UK can't avoid austerity measures. 

"He blames it all on the conservatives, of course," Stubbs chides, "but he admits that even if Labour were in power, they would not be in any position to do anything terribly different for the moment."

The head of British Conservatives in Paris harkens back to the dark days of 1973, when Conservative Prime Minister Ted Heath admitted "it's going to be a long, hard winter such as we have never known."

Stubbs believes this winter, "those words are going to come to haunt us."

Frustration and confusion

Looking at the implosion of successive Conservative governments from afar may be entertaining for some, but how have traditional Tories – such as Stubbs and his association in Paris – viewed the shenanigans at Westminster from abroad?

"I think the feeling is one of frustration and embarrassment," Stubbs admits, "but ultimatly we hope that somehow the ship will be brought back on to an even keel."

In that sense, Stubbs says he doesn't feel the mood is very different abroad than in Britain.

However, one thing is clear: Sunak's appointment as prime minister isn't an election, but a coronation.

"That might generate a greater amount of frustration – particularly in Britain – less so abroad," he recognises.

Stubbs concludes, "I think members find themselves in a very, very difficult situation – psychologically. They're hoping that things can be brought back to some sort of normality.

"People are frustrated ... who is responsible to who here? It's a time of great confusion."

Watch full video here.

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey.

Recorded and edited by Cécile Pompeani, Nicholas Doreau and Erwan Rome.

Jeremy Stubbs is the head of the Association of British Conservatives in Paris and deputy editor of Le Causeur magazine.