3424: [Part 1] Dealing with Uncertainty in Retirement Calculations by Darrow Kirkpatrick of Can I Retire Yet
16 January 2026

3424: [Part 1] Dealing with Uncertainty in Retirement Calculations by Darrow Kirkpatrick of Can I Retire Yet

Optimal Finance Daily - Financial Independence and Money Advice

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Episode 3424:

Darrow Kirkpatrick exposes how even modest shifts in retirement planning inputs, like inflation, returns, or lifespan, can produce drastically different financial outcomes. Using a simple couple’s case study, he reveals how uncertainty compounds to the point where the difference between financial freedom and running out of money can hinge on a few percentage points.

Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.caniretireyet.com/dealing-with-uncertainty-in-retirement-calculations/

Quotes to ponder:

"Retirement planning can be like [the game of Telephone]. Seemingly small differences in input can compound into gigantic differences in output."

"The longer you live, the more chance you’ll run out of money, so that’s a worst case for financial planning."

Episode references:

Social Security Administration Life Expectancy Info: https://www.ssa.gov/planners/lifeexpectancy.html

Rational Expectations by William Bernstein: https://www.amazon.com/Rational-Expectations-Asset-Allocation-Prosperity/dp/0988780313
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