Odds on Open

Roger Ehrenberg ran DB Advisors, Deutsche Bank’s $6 billion multi-manager hedge fund platform, overseeing around 20 trading teams across statistical arbitrage, high-frequency trading, CTA, and special situations. He went on to found IA Ventures and now runs Game Changers Ventures. In this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho and Roger get into how risk was allocated across pods before the...

Former Goldman Sachs head of natural gas trading John Knorring delivers a lecture on commodities trading from first principles, adapted from the one he gives to Princeton financial engineering students. Starting from one equation, supply minus demand equals the change in inventory, he explains how storage constraints drive price, why crude oil went negative in 2020, and why US natural gas is so...

Former Goldman Sachs oil derivatives trader and GSR Head of DeFi Simranjeet Singh breaks down market microstructure, liquidity provision, and risk management across traditional commodities and crypto assets. Simran recounts navigating the historic April 2020 WTI crude collapse to -$37.63, detailing how desks adapted option pricing models when log-normality broke under 400% annualized volatility,...

David Orr returns to Odds on Open to unpack how he sustains a 50% annualized return and a 2.1 Sharpe ratio by stripping the multi-manager model down to raw alpha generation. We deconstruct his firm’s AI-driven risk architecture, detailing how proprietary factor models recalculate custom basket correlations in real-time to manage tail risk across a 400% levered portfolio. David also breaks down...

Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html On this episode of Odds on Open, hedge fund manager Joe Walsh joins Ethan Kho to break down how probabilistic decision-making and bankroll management from high-stakes poker translate into institutional equity outperformance. Walsh outlines his framework for game selection across liquid markets, detailing why he deliberately avoids the...

Geoffrey Williams spent more than a decade at Goldman Sachs, where he traded structured products through the 2008 financial crisis and later co-ran the CMBS trading business. In this episode of Odds on Open, he takes Ethan Kho inside the Goldman mortgage desk as Bear Stearns and Lehman collapsed. He explains how banks sold tens of billions of super senior protection on ABS CDOs for 10 basis...

Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html In this episode of Odds on Open, Alpaca Co-Founder and CEO Yoshi Yokokawa breaks down the changing microstructure of systematic trading, the democratization of quantitative R&D, and why AI agents alone will never grant you a defensible market edge. As LLMs compress strategy iteration and backtesting feedback loops, the traditional...

Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Chris Camillo and Tom Costello go head-to-head on Odds on Open's first every debate episode. They answer a question every trader eventually confronts: who is actually better positioned to take risk — a concentrated retail investor with no LPs, mandates, or career risk, or an institutional hedge fund manager with a two-and-twenty...

Lihong Wang spent his career as a discretionary options trader at IMC, one of the world's largest market makers, trading semiconductor volatility on names like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. In this episode, he breaks down how a prop trading desk actually makes money: reading order flow to identify counterparties, trading against structured product hedging flows from Asian banks, warehousing benign...

Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Alix Pasquet, hedge fund manager and Managing Partner at Prime Macaya Capital, breaks down how fundamental investors build durable edge in modern markets. In this episode, Alix explains the three sources of competitive advantage in the investment business — analytical, informational, and behavioral — and why exploiting group behavior...