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Episodes
152
02 April 2026
How are investors responding to the Iran conflict? – with Victoria Scholar from interactive investor
The Iran war is now in its 5th week, longer than many in the market seem to have been expecting, and it continues to be a source of significant asset price volatility. Paul and Luke are joined by Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment at interactive investor, to consider the market and investor reaction to the conflict. They discuss the significance of the oil price as both barometer and...
22 min
05 March 2026
Conflict in Iran: how long will it last, and what will be the economic impact?
The war in Iran and the wider Middle East has dealt a significant blow to asset prices. Paul, Luke and Lizzy look at the US and Israel’s war aims and examine why Iran’s response has been larger than expected. They go on to consider what asset prices appear to be pricing in about the likely outcome of the conflict, and what this could mean for growth, inflation and interest rates. They also...
34 min
26 February 2026
Can Europe innovate at war(p) speed? - with the NATO Innovation Fund
The war in Ukraine is now four years old, and the nature of modern warfighting - and Europe’s defence needs - has shifted dramatically as a result. Lizzy and Paul talk to John Ridge and Erin Hallock of the NATO Innovation Fund, a multi‑government‑backed venture capital fund, about the accelerating pace of innovation on the battlefield, why governments must procure and adopt defence technology far...
35 min
12 February 2026
Does politics matter for markets? - with Jens Larsen of Eurasia Group
2026 has started with a flurry of political shocks. Luke and Lizzy talk to Jens Larsen, Practice Head of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, about the structurally elevated geopolitical volatility that investors now face and why this matter to markets. They discuss the fundamental drivers of heightened political risk, including the end of the unipolar moment and the re-emergence of great power...
42 min
29 January 2026
Will the trade war become a capital war?
With President Trump threatening fresh tariffs on various economies, trade wars are back in focus. Moreover, the risk of the trade war spreading to a capital war has become more pressing. The EU has been considering activating its “Anti-Coercion Instrument” in response to US threats to Greenland, which could see services trade and capital flows targeted. Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss how a...
32 min
16 January 2026
What will the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ mean for global macro and markets?
The recent US intervention in Venezuela is a vivid demonstration of the new so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ asserting complete US supremacy in the western hemisphere. Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss the historical context of America’s new foreign policy stance and what it might mean for various neighbours including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, and Greenland. They also consider potential read across...
35 min
15 December 2025
What does 2026 hold for macro and markets?
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the Aberdeen Investments research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2026 – including the outlook for monetary policy under a new Fed chair, whether China can tackle its deflation problem, and the risk of an AI bubble bursting.
27 min
27 November 2025
UK Budget: Macro Bytes immediate reaction episode
The much-anticipated UK budget has finally been announced. Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the economic and market implications of the tax rises, spending increases, and higher fiscal headroom. Financial markets liked what they saw in the budget, but the team highlight the backloaded nature of the tax increases, question markets around future spending plans, and the...
21 min
12 November 2025
How can investors navigate a fracturing economic order? - with Neil Shearing
The world isn’t deglobalising, it’s fracturing – splitting into US and China blocs, along manufacturing, technological, and financial lines. Paul speaks to Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. Paul and Neil talk about what the hyper-globalisation consensus that economic...
32 min
06 November 2025
How are the US and China weaponising the global economy? - with Edward Fishman
US export controls on high-end semiconductor chips, and Chinese control over rare earth supply, are just the most recent examples of major economies weaponising chokepoints in the global economy. Paul and Luke speak to Edward Fishman, a former US State Department sanctions official, Colombia University professor, and author of “Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War”, about...
51 min