What matters most for a president entering a second year

The author is a professor of political science and international relations at Seoul National University.

As political parties focus on Wednesday's local elections, another milestone arrives the following day. Thursday marks the first anniversary of the Lee Jae Myung administration.

Much has changed during President Lee's first year in office. Most notably, his administration restored a measure of stability after six months of severe turmoil, division and uncertainty triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of martial law. Diplomatically, the government managed relations with the United States despite U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff and security policies and achieved progress in relations with Japan. Economically, exports increased despite difficult conditions, and the stock market enjoyed a strong run. These developments helped sustain Lee's approval ratings in the 60 percent range.



Political factors also contributed to that success. The first year of any presidency typically benefits from a honeymoon period. Public memories of the turmoil surrounding martial law and impeachment remained fresh. The opposition, meanwhile, struggled to escape Yoon's shadow even after losing power. Against that backdrop, the administration often found it easier to govern. Whenever political difficulties arose, the president and the ruling party could invoke the cause of "overcoming the insurrection" as a powerful political argument.

Yet it would be unrealistic to expect such favorable conditions to continue into the second year.

One notable feature of the local election campaign is that the Democratic Party (DP)'s insurrection narrative appears to be losing its political effectiveness. Party leader Jung Chung-rae repeatedly raised the issue on the campaign trail, but the public response was noticeably weaker than before. The election may mark a turning point at which Yoon Suk Yeol's political impact has faded, and the Lee administration itself has become the primary object of public evaluation.

Before the campaign began, many expected the DP to win nearly every metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial race outside North Gyeongsang. As campaigning intensified, however, races in politically significant cities such as Seoul and Busan became increasingly competitive. Whatever the election outcome, the Lee administration is entering a new phase in which it can no longer rely on criticism of its predecessor as a political shield.

From now on, the administration's achievements and shortcomings will be judged on their own merits.

One of the most important challenges facing President Lee is restoring Korean democracy. Since democratization, Korea has faced two major crises: the Asian financial crisis and the period surrounding the declaration of martial law. President Kim Dae-jung overcame the economic emergency by emphasizing burden-sharing and national unity while transforming the economy's structure. That achievement remains central to his legacy.

The democratic crisis, however, has not yet been resolved. Judicial proceedings concerning the martial law episode continue, but the political polarization that helped produce the crisis remains unchanged. The DP's majoritarian approach has become normalized. President Lee himself often frames politics as a struggle between "us" and those perceived as harming communities and livelihoods.



Several controversial initiatives have fueled suspicions that political considerations linked to the president's legal risks are influencing policy decisions. Together with the so-called judicial reform bills, these moves have raised concerns about the judiciary's neutrality and independence. During the first year, many such issues were overshadowed by the legacy of the previous administration. Going forward, however, similar actions are likely to translate directly into negative assessments of the current government.

The president may also need to reconsider his governing style.

If Lee...