About
The author is a senior columnist at the JoongAng Ilbo.
The "butterfly effect" refers to the idea that a tiny change can trigger an unforeseen upheaval. The concept emerged from the work of meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who in 1961 entered rounded data into an early computer model and ended up with weather patterns completely different from his original forecast. He later popularized the theory through a lecture asking whether "the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas."
Though rooted in natural science, the idea also resonates with concepts long embedded in religion and human society: karma and reincarnation in Buddhism and Hinduism, or the Korean notions that one reaps what one sows, that virtue is rewarded and evil punished and that fortune can reverse in an instant. For ordinary people, the thought of "what if things had gone differently then?" has long served as a source of regret, consolation and self-justification.
The butterfly effect is also a useful lens through which to understand history, especially politics and elections, where countless variables collide.
One notable example was the so-called hair-pulling woman incident inside the Unified Progressive Party in 2012, when the party held 13 seats as the nation's second-largest opposition force. During an internal dispute, a young woman grabbed the hair of the party leader during a meeting. The moment was captured by JoongAng Ilbo photographer Cho Yong-chul. The image — showing the woman's furious stare and the distorted face of the party leader — won Korea's top press photography award that year.
Repeatedly replayed by the media, the photograph fueled a broader perception of the party as violent and extreme. The political tornado that followed eventually led to a split that created the Justice Party, and two and a half years later, the Unified Progressive Party was dissolved by a Constitutional Court ruling and disappeared.
The June 3 local elections and parliamentary by-elections could likewise produce unexpected butterfly effects.
The ruling bloc is focusing heavily on the Daegu mayoral race between Kim Boo-kyum of the Democratic Party (DP) and Choo Kyung-ho of the People Power Party (PPP). One DP lawmaker said that if Kim, a former prime minister, succeeds in the conservative stronghold of Daegu, he would become the first DP mayor in the city's history.
The implications could extend beyond local government. Since the mayoral term ends in June 2030, near the next presidential election, the DP would gain a rare potential presidential contender with experience governing both the Gyeongsang region and Daegu. Another ruling party lawmaker noted that all three liberal presidents since Kim Dae-jung — Roh Moo-hyun, Moon Jae-in and Lee Jae Myung — were born in the Gyeongsang region.
The Busan Buk-A district by-election, where Ha Jung-woo of the DP, Park Min-sik of the PPP and independent candidate Han Dong-hoon are competing, may also reshape future politics. If Han, expelled from the PPP under leader Jang Dong-hyeok, survives politically in the Gyeongsang region, the conservative power structure could be shaken. Together with Lee Jun-seok, another conservative figure pushed aside under the former Yoon Suk Yeol administration, Han could emerge as part of a new conservative axis.
The race in Pyeongtaek involving Cho Kuk of the Rebuilding Korea Party, Kim Yong-nam and Yoo Eui-dong may also carry wider consequences. Although merger talks once circulated between the DP and the Rebuilding Korea Party, Kim and Cho are now attacking each other rather than jointly confronting Yoo, a strong local conservative figure.
Some interpret the contest as a proxy battle between Cho, who seeks to rebuild his standing after a scandal involving his children's academics through a parliamentary comeback, and DP leader Jung Chung-rae, who aims to strengthen the party's future dominance.
Above all, June 3 may become another turning point in Korean politics. I...