Japan Secures Stable Trade Deal with Trump Avoiding Tariff Hikes and Boosting $550 Billion Investment Commitment
28 January 2026

Japan Secures Stable Trade Deal with Trump Avoiding Tariff Hikes and Boosting $550 Billion Investment Commitment

Japan Tariff News and Tracker

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Welcome to Japan Tariff News and Tracker, where we break down the latest on U.S.-Japan trade tensions and triumphs under President Trump.

Japanese firms are breathing easier after the July 2025 U.S.-Japan trade agreement locked in a stable 15 percent reciprocal tariff rate, shielding most products from steeper hikes that have hit allies like South Korea, where Trump just boosted auto and pharma tariffs from 15 to 25 percent on January 26, according to Chosun Ilbo reports. For Japan, the deal sets zero percent tariffs on products with U.S. Column 1 duty rates of 15 percent or higher, and 15 percent minus the Column 1 rate for others, with key exemptions for aerospace goods, as detailed in the Trade Compliance Resource Hub's Trump 2.0 tariff tracker updated January 27.

In exchange, Japan pledged up to $550 billion in U.S. investments, already the top source of foreign direct investment at $820 billion stock in 2024, per CSIS analysis. This commitment is paying off: Trump praised the U.S.-Japan alliance as having a "very bright" future in a video message during a January 25-28 visit by U.S. Under Secretary Michael Rigas, with Ambassador George Glass echoing that the partnership is "unwavering." Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi highlighted Trump's words on X, signaling momentum ahead of her March U.S. visit, where first projects—like a $25 billion data center—could be announced, as noted by Chosun Ilbo and Asia Cable.

Yet challenges linger. A JETRO survey shows nearly 70 percent of Japanese firms report harm from the 15 percent tariff, hiking procurement costs and eroding competitiveness, while 30 percent brace for profit drops amid U.S. labor shortages, according to CSIS. Car buyers feel it too: Models like the Toyota 4Runner and Subaru Forester, built in Japan, face potential $6,000 price jumps on 2026 inventory, Kelley Blue Book estimates via GearJunkie.

The consultative committee has met three times since December, tying tariff restraint to real project funding via JBIC bonds and reserves. CSIS warns durability hinges on Trump approving aligned investments—failure risks escalation.

Japan's swift execution, sans legislative hurdles unlike South Korea, positions it strongly amid Trump's tariff push.

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