10 September 2026
Democrats Again Angle for Mike Lawler's Seat Lawler walks a Trump tightrope Lawler's opponent aims to fend off progressive label Shifting district lines have benefited Lawler
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Can the two-term Republican hold on?
Rep. Mike Lawler is considered one of the nation's most vulnerable Republicans in this year's midterm elections. It was the same story in his last campaign, too.
But in a political era where both parties are drifting further apart, he's banking on New York voters still wanting a rare moderate voice in a polarized Washington. In fact, he thinks it's helpful that he's a Republican in an otherwise liberal state.
"Well, I think one thing to keep in mind is New York is controlled by Democrats," he said in an interview. "Their policies are directly responsible for the high cost of living, the decline in the quality of life, the out-of-control pro-criminal policies that make people less safe. These are their policies."
Lawler, who represents a lush and leafy section of the Hudson Valley, is trying to harness suburban anxiety over New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the surging progressive movement as he tries to beat the odds in a battleground district with many more registered Democrats than Republicans.
"Democrats, to me, have gone crazy," said Frank Zambrano, a 70-year-old retired fire marshal who lives in Rockland County and said his kids went to school with Lawler. "Give me something in the middle."
While Lawler's foes try to tie him to President Donald Trump's most inflammatory positions, he argues that he's willing to push back on both sides. In a recent campaign video, Lawler showcased a clip of Trump jokingly using an expletive to describe how much of "a pain" the congressman was to push for expanding a critical tax deduction known as SALT, which benefits homeowners in more expensive states like New York.
It may be difficult, however, for Lawler to paint his Democratic opponent Cait Conley as a progressive in Mamdani's mold.
A decorated combat veteran with degrees from Harvard and MIT, Conley is running as a pro-military moderate who can fight the president's agenda and capture some of the outsider energy that has lifted Democrats elsewhere.
"I think that that fire, that drive, that desire for change, it's not just contained to progressive voters," she said in an interview. "People are sick of status quo politicians. They're sick of the people who got us here."
Democrats want to claw back control of Congress by leveraging concerns over the U.S. war with Iran and an affordability crisis that's hitting everything from food to fuel to housing.
Lawler has heard a lot of those concerns firsthand, since they have been shouted at him during raucous town halls he's held in the district. He said it's possible to back Trump but also not agree with him on everything.
At a recent campaign event, Lawler told reporters he didn't support the president's decision to end Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants, noting he shepherded bipartisan legislation in the House to extend the policy and argued Haitians make up a critical part of his district's healthcare workers.
After the event, Lawler told The Associated Press: "When I agree with the president, I'm willing to say it. And when I disagree with him, I'm willing to say it."
"When it comes to President Trump, No. 1, he's the president of the United States, and the idea that you just say 'I hate you, I refuse to work with you,' you get nowhere. Where does that get you in terms of serving your constituents or your districts? Too many of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle have taken that posture, and they've gotten nothing done," he said.
Like other Democrats running this year, Conley has sought to play up her opponent's relationship to Trump, painting the incumbent as too beholden to the president's agenda on Iran, tariffs and cuts to the social safety net.
"Trump is throwing all the love on Lawler," she said, mentioning her opponent's recent rally in the district with the president. "Don't tell me you stand up to him."
Conley, a former counterterrorism director at the National Security Council under President Joe Biden, has tri...
Rep. Mike Lawler is considered one of the nation's most vulnerable Republicans in this year's midterm elections. It was the same story in his last campaign, too.
But in a political era where both parties are drifting further apart, he's banking on New York voters still wanting a rare moderate voice in a polarized Washington. In fact, he thinks it's helpful that he's a Republican in an otherwise liberal state.
"Well, I think one thing to keep in mind is New York is controlled by Democrats," he said in an interview. "Their policies are directly responsible for the high cost of living, the decline in the quality of life, the out-of-control pro-criminal policies that make people less safe. These are their policies."
Lawler, who represents a lush and leafy section of the Hudson Valley, is trying to harness suburban anxiety over New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the surging progressive movement as he tries to beat the odds in a battleground district with many more registered Democrats than Republicans.
"Democrats, to me, have gone crazy," said Frank Zambrano, a 70-year-old retired fire marshal who lives in Rockland County and said his kids went to school with Lawler. "Give me something in the middle."
While Lawler's foes try to tie him to President Donald Trump's most inflammatory positions, he argues that he's willing to push back on both sides. In a recent campaign video, Lawler showcased a clip of Trump jokingly using an expletive to describe how much of "a pain" the congressman was to push for expanding a critical tax deduction known as SALT, which benefits homeowners in more expensive states like New York.
It may be difficult, however, for Lawler to paint his Democratic opponent Cait Conley as a progressive in Mamdani's mold.
A decorated combat veteran with degrees from Harvard and MIT, Conley is running as a pro-military moderate who can fight the president's agenda and capture some of the outsider energy that has lifted Democrats elsewhere.
"I think that that fire, that drive, that desire for change, it's not just contained to progressive voters," she said in an interview. "People are sick of status quo politicians. They're sick of the people who got us here."
Democrats want to claw back control of Congress by leveraging concerns over the U.S. war with Iran and an affordability crisis that's hitting everything from food to fuel to housing.
Lawler has heard a lot of those concerns firsthand, since they have been shouted at him during raucous town halls he's held in the district. He said it's possible to back Trump but also not agree with him on everything.
At a recent campaign event, Lawler told reporters he didn't support the president's decision to end Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants, noting he shepherded bipartisan legislation in the House to extend the policy and argued Haitians make up a critical part of his district's healthcare workers.
After the event, Lawler told The Associated Press: "When I agree with the president, I'm willing to say it. And when I disagree with him, I'm willing to say it."
"When it comes to President Trump, No. 1, he's the president of the United States, and the idea that you just say 'I hate you, I refuse to work with you,' you get nowhere. Where does that get you in terms of serving your constituents or your districts? Too many of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle have taken that posture, and they've gotten nothing done," he said.
Like other Democrats running this year, Conley has sought to play up her opponent's relationship to Trump, painting the incumbent as too beholden to the president's agenda on Iran, tariffs and cuts to the social safety net.
"Trump is throwing all the love on Lawler," she said, mentioning her opponent's recent rally in the district with the president. "Don't tell me you stand up to him."
Conley, a former counterterrorism director at the National Security Council under President Joe Biden, has tri...