19 October 2026
Challenger Faces High Bar to Unseat Ryan Who is Jackie Auringer? Ryan's record A quiet but fiery campaign
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House Democrat seeks third term representing Beacon
When Pat Ryan entered Congress in August 2022, in a special election to fill a vacant seat, he eked out a victory, winning by 3,837 votes of 132,246 cast, or 2.9 percentage points, over former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro. In the general election later that year, the Democrat defeated Republican Colin Schmitt by an even smaller margin, 1.3 percent.
Two years later, it wasn't close: Ryan defeated Alison Esposito by 14 points, turning what had been seen as a "purple" seat into one solidly blue. The district includes Orange County and parts of Ulster and Dutchess, including Beacon.
That has set a high bar for his 29-year-old Republican challenger on Nov. 3, Jackie Auringer, a Kingston native who has never held elected office.
Ryan has the advantages of incumbency, widespread name recognition and a formidable fundraising operation, said Richard Born, a Vassar College political science professor who has studied congressional elections and redistricting for decades. As of Sept. 30, Auringer had raised $153,000 during the election cycle, compared to Ryan's $5.3 million.
Ryan also has the national political winds in his sails in a midterm cycle widely viewed as unfavorable for Republicans amid high gas prices, rising inflation and low approval ratings for President Donald Trump.
Born says that, taken together, that makes Auringer's candidacy a long shot, predicting that if she defeats Ryan, it would be "the biggest upset in the whole country."
In the district, noting that he has seen little advertising and scant evidence of canvassing by either side. "It's not a very active campaign," Minkoff said.
No recent independent public polling of the race has been released. Born said that while the district has become somewhat more Democratic in recent years, he still considers it a swing district. As of February, 38 percent of registered voters were Democrats, 27 percent were Republicans, and 29 percent were unaffiliated, according to the state Board of Elections.
In 2024, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried the district by 3 percentage points. But in that same election, Ryan won by 14 points. Born attributes this to Ryan developing what political scientists call a "personal vote," or support from voters based on their view of the candidate himself rather than simply his party.
Born said Ryan has cultivated that support, in part, by working on local issues and being accessible to constituents. In a September interview, he positioned himself as a moderate Democrat willing to work across party lines, an approach Born said suits a district where neither party enjoys an overwhelming advantage.
"The district is moderate, and Ryan is a relatively moderate Democrat," Born said, noting that Ryan is "open to the idea of working with Republicans." But maintaining that reputation will be important, Born said. "He has to still come across as being relatively bipartisan." At the same time, Minkoff said, Ryan must keep progressive voters motivated enough to turn out.
Auringer has structured her campaign around challenging Ryan's strengths, seeking to turn his incumbency against him and undermine the moderate, locally rooted image he has cultivated. She has portrayed him as a Washington insider who has lost touch with the district and is shifting increasingly to the left. In September, she filed an ethics complaint questioning whether Ryan still lives in the Hudson Valley. She has also attacked his ties to wealthy political donors and groups, including the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC.
Ryan's campaign, meanwhile, has sought to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Trump administration by tying Auringer closely to the president and his political movement. His campaign has called Auringer a "full-blown MAGA influencer straight out of Mar-a-Lago."
"The Trump administration is doing devastating harm to our community, so we need someone to be fighting back against those h...
When Pat Ryan entered Congress in August 2022, in a special election to fill a vacant seat, he eked out a victory, winning by 3,837 votes of 132,246 cast, or 2.9 percentage points, over former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro. In the general election later that year, the Democrat defeated Republican Colin Schmitt by an even smaller margin, 1.3 percent.
Two years later, it wasn't close: Ryan defeated Alison Esposito by 14 points, turning what had been seen as a "purple" seat into one solidly blue. The district includes Orange County and parts of Ulster and Dutchess, including Beacon.
That has set a high bar for his 29-year-old Republican challenger on Nov. 3, Jackie Auringer, a Kingston native who has never held elected office.
Ryan has the advantages of incumbency, widespread name recognition and a formidable fundraising operation, said Richard Born, a Vassar College political science professor who has studied congressional elections and redistricting for decades. As of Sept. 30, Auringer had raised $153,000 during the election cycle, compared to Ryan's $5.3 million.
Ryan also has the national political winds in his sails in a midterm cycle widely viewed as unfavorable for Republicans amid high gas prices, rising inflation and low approval ratings for President Donald Trump.
Born says that, taken together, that makes Auringer's candidacy a long shot, predicting that if she defeats Ryan, it would be "the biggest upset in the whole country."
In the district, noting that he has seen little advertising and scant evidence of canvassing by either side. "It's not a very active campaign," Minkoff said.
No recent independent public polling of the race has been released. Born said that while the district has become somewhat more Democratic in recent years, he still considers it a swing district. As of February, 38 percent of registered voters were Democrats, 27 percent were Republicans, and 29 percent were unaffiliated, according to the state Board of Elections.
In 2024, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried the district by 3 percentage points. But in that same election, Ryan won by 14 points. Born attributes this to Ryan developing what political scientists call a "personal vote," or support from voters based on their view of the candidate himself rather than simply his party.
Born said Ryan has cultivated that support, in part, by working on local issues and being accessible to constituents. In a September interview, he positioned himself as a moderate Democrat willing to work across party lines, an approach Born said suits a district where neither party enjoys an overwhelming advantage.
"The district is moderate, and Ryan is a relatively moderate Democrat," Born said, noting that Ryan is "open to the idea of working with Republicans." But maintaining that reputation will be important, Born said. "He has to still come across as being relatively bipartisan." At the same time, Minkoff said, Ryan must keep progressive voters motivated enough to turn out.
Auringer has structured her campaign around challenging Ryan's strengths, seeking to turn his incumbency against him and undermine the moderate, locally rooted image he has cultivated. She has portrayed him as a Washington insider who has lost touch with the district and is shifting increasingly to the left. In September, she filed an ethics complaint questioning whether Ryan still lives in the Hudson Valley. She has also attacked his ties to wealthy political donors and groups, including the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC.
Ryan's campaign, meanwhile, has sought to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Trump administration by tying Auringer closely to the president and his political movement. His campaign has called Auringer a "full-blown MAGA influencer straight out of Mar-a-Lago."
"The Trump administration is doing devastating harm to our community, so we need someone to be fighting back against those h...