Macro Implications of the 2026 Iran War for EU and US Inflation and Growth

This Global Equity Research episode examines how the 2026 war centered on Iran is transmitting through global energy and logistics into EU and US inflation and growth. Drawing on Softgate Capital Research’s scenario work, Emily Carter and Gregory Palmer break down the Strait of Hormuz shock, oil and LNG flows, shipping and insurance costs, and the macro channels that matter most for investors.The conversation compares euro area and US sensitivity to oil and gas prices, walks through baseline, moderate, and severe disruption scenarios for inflation, and explores what those paths imply for growth, policy trade-offs, and recession risk—especially in Europe. The hosts also discuss emerging policy responses, including the IEA’s record emergency release, shipping-risk backstops, and the communication stance of the ECB and Fed, before translating the analysis into an investor-focused cross-asset lens.The full written report from Softgate Capital Research is available via the link in this episode’s description or at softgatecapitalresearch.com.