Global Data Pod

The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain...

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of...

With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look like. Speakers:Bruce KasmanJoseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 24 April 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth but a dash more inflation. The “not having your cake and eating it too” theme is back on the menu. The case for more hawkish central banks is made, most clearly...

The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which remain large, we see supports to weather the storm. However, signs of slowing consumer spending last quarter and a March drop in surveys raise concerns....

The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit...

The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of debate (both "should" and "will") about central bank reactions. Speakers:Bruce KasmanJoseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2026. This...

Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicating central bank reactions. Speakers:Bruce KasmanJoseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026. This communication is provided for information...

The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of elevated, high, and surging oil prices the key downside risks to growth. With uncertainty high, central banks will likely stay in wait-and-see mode. The degree to which cyclical context influences policy decisions is debated. A few brief remarks...

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihood and magnitude of second-order effects on core inflation and inflation expectations; and how central banks are likely to react to the shock.This podcast was...