TWIG #403: The Market Only Grew 2%, Friendslop Hits the PC Charts and China Drafts Off GTA VI

Strip out inflation and the games market has barely grown in a decade.

This week we dig into Newzoo's latest numbers and what they say about where growth comes from: mature Western markets, existing players and five giant companies taking almost all of it. Then we look at how cheap social games like Big Walk and How to Fish cracked the top 10 PC revenue chart, what Naughty Dog's new Last of Us tease means, and why Chinese developers are rushing GTA-style mobile games out ahead of GTA VI.

Topics Covered:

Mark Pincus and the $400M Supercell deal that almost happenedWhy 2021 is the wrong benchmark for the marketReal growth after inflation is closer to 2% a yearGrowth comes from mature markets and existing playersChina's advantage at home and abroadCPIs keep climbing while mobile installs fallFive companies drove almost all of 2025's growthBig publishers retreat to their core franchisesFriendslop games break into the PC top 10Naughty Dog confirms more Last of UsChinese GTA-style games launch ahead of GTA VIWhy nobody can compete with GTA head on

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Intro
01:01 Ethan Returns Industry Layoffs
01:34 Upcoming Events and Newsletter
03:15 Mark Pincus Interview Scoop
09:45 Newzoo Outlook Beyond COVID
11:37 Growth From Mature Markets
15:58 Inflation and Real Growth Math
23:28 Mobile Revenue vs Installs CPI Surge
27:03 Growth Concentrated in Five Giants
29:49 Publishers Retreat to Core Franchises
31:04 PC Market Reality Check
32:53 Friend Slop Breakouts
47:43 Last of Us Future Talk
01:00:54 Why GTA Has No Rivals