09 September 2026
The Motivation Angle That Made Bettors Rich (Then Died) | Presented by ProphetX
Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
About
Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines.
🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/
📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days
LINKS
🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - The Misconception
1:07 - I Am One of the Spreadsheet Guys
2:45 - Millions of Angles, We Test One
5:07 - Quantify Everything
5:58 - The Market Knew Something I Didn't
8:39 - Motivation in Golf
10:00 - Defining Revenge (For Real)
11:31 - 3,000 Revenge Games
13:18 - The Bounce Back
15:32 - Does It Still Work?
16:55 - Watching an Angle Die
19:55 - The Small Sample Trap
21:08 - The Million Dollar Catch
23:24 - Sponsored by ProphetX
24:42 - Refusing to Guess
25:21 - What Should We Test Next?
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#SportsBetting #NFLBetting #SharpBetting #BettingStrategy #NFLAnalytics #ClosingLineValue #BettingEdge #NFLDataAnalysis #ProphetX #CirclesOff
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/
📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days
LINKS
🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - The Misconception
1:07 - I Am One of the Spreadsheet Guys
2:45 - Millions of Angles, We Test One
5:07 - Quantify Everything
5:58 - The Market Knew Something I Didn't
8:39 - Motivation in Golf
10:00 - Defining Revenge (For Real)
11:31 - 3,000 Revenge Games
13:18 - The Bounce Back
15:32 - Does It Still Work?
16:55 - Watching an Angle Die
19:55 - The Small Sample Trap
21:08 - The Million Dollar Catch
23:24 - Sponsored by ProphetX
24:42 - Refusing to Guess
25:21 - What Should We Test Next?
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#SportsBetting #NFLBetting #SharpBetting #BettingStrategy #NFLAnalytics #ClosingLineValue #BettingEdge #NFLDataAnalysis #ProphetX #CirclesOff
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices