Michael Bull, CCIM and PwC's Andrew Alperstein break down Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027: the top 10 markets, top sectors, rates, distress and AI.
The 48th edition of the PwC and Urban Land Institute report draws on more than 500 interviews and close to 1,000 surveys of owners, lenders, developers and home builders across the US and Canada. This year's theme is "You Have to Work for It." With the 10-year Treasury near 5%, investors expect returns to come from operations and asset selection, since cap rate compression is off the table.
Andrew walks through the numbers. Only 50% of respondents rate the profitability outlook good or excellent, down from 55% last year and 65% two years ago, yet buy signals are among the strongest in recent years as properties trade below replacement cost and new supply sits near historic lows. He also covers 2019 and 2021 vintage debt maturities, how AI is changing office demand and analyst hiring, and why policy now drives where capital flows.
Senior housing leads the sector outlook, followed by retail and industrial. Dallas ranks as the No. 1 market for the third straight year, with Nashville, Miami, Raleigh-Durham and a resurgent San Francisco rounding out the top five.
In this episode:
00:00 Emerging Trends in Real Estate: 48 Years of PwC and ULI Research
01:07 How the Report Is Built: 500+ Interviews and 1,000 Surveys
03:20 Top Economic Issue: The 10-Year Treasury Near 5%
06:12 The Theme: "You Have to Work for It"
06:59 Inflation, Oil Prices and Real Estate as a Hedge
08:34 New Supply at Historic Lows Across Property Types
09:48 Below Replacement Cost: Sentiment at 50%, Buy Signals Up
11:15 Distress and Debt Maturities: 2019 and 2021 Vintage Loans
13:19 AI in CRE: Productivity, Talent and Data Center Demand
16:54 AI and Office Demand: CBD Growth vs. Suburban Back Office
19:48 Top Sectors: Senior Housing Leads the Growth Outlook
21:35 Retail, Office, Multifamily and Industrial Rankings
24:19 The Expanding Real Estate Universe: Marinas, Golf, Infrastructure
25:05 Transaction Volume: Selective and Submarket Specific
27:26 Top 10 Markets: Dallas Is No. 1 for the Third Year
29:28 San Francisco Jumps to No. 5, Plus Manhattan and Jersey City
31:36 Policy's Growing Impact on Where Capital Flows
33:55 Demographics: Aging Boomers and 18-Year-Olds Peaking
35:28 Final Takeaway
Connect with Andrew Alperstein:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-alperstein-ab0a822/
PwC Website: https://www.pwc.com
Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
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