All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

(0:00) Bestie intros

(3:07) The Besties welcome Box CEO Aaron Levie!

(5:40) Thoughts on Sacks's new role, what areas he can have immediate positive impact on in crypto and AI

(18:42) DOGE's first casualty and its paradigm-shifting potential

(48:25) Conspiracy Corner: What are the drones over New Jersey!?

(57:36) Zuck joins Team Elon against OpenAI, AI's competitive landscape and downstream impact on business software

(1:27:29) Google's AI turnaround, future of AI physics and video models

Follow the besties:

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Follow Aaron Levie:

https://x.com/levie

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-continuing-resolution-march-14

https://x.com/Jason/status/1869816646954823916

https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/CR.pdf

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-house-vote-continuing-resolution

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1869730547851051029

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/continuing-resolution-government-shutdown-2024

https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1869407887983821089

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed58.asp

https://x.com/patrickc/status/1869422495985750459

https://x.com/chamath/status/1869773044832718917

https://x.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1869871681830879256

https://x.com/RepJayapal/status/1869823494588162475

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869485580276629975

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869482581181554704

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869487359420727338

https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-diminished-3906a839

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/19/faa-drone-flights-are-temporarily-banned-new-jersey.html

https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat

https://x.com/AutismCapital

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/openai-sees-5-billion-loss-this-year-on-3point7-billion-in-revenue.html

https://www.axios.com/2024/12/19/openai-bret-taylor-nonprofit-restructuring

https://openai.com/index/scale-the-benefits-of-ai

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/technology/mira-murati-openai.html

https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-openai-lawsuit-sam-altman-chatgpt-36bc55dbb8b4f9e1e5675ff7564e5fa0

https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/13/24320880/meta-california-ag-letter-openai-non-profit-elon-musk

https://x.com/DailyPalantir/status/1869097046889882057

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-28/openai-cfo-says-75-of-its-revenue-comes-from-paying-consumers

https://x.com/GoogleDeepMind/status/1868703624714395907

https://x.com/_philschmid/status/1869639246434246966

(0:00) The Besties welcome Keith Rabois!

(4:01) Keith explains why he returned to Khosla Ventures, the differences between Founders Fund and Khosla, and his husband Jacob Helberg's role in Trump Admin

(13:09) Business acumen of Trump's cabinet and appointees, diversity of opinion

(25:59) Google's new quantum chip: potential impact on encryption, cryptography, and more

(43:50) Apple developing new server chip for AI inference, iOS flop, why its product culture is failing

(54:30) TikTok panics after appeals court upholds the "divest-or-ban" law, with a January 19th deadline

(1:03:55) State of Venture Capital, why Stripe is still private, thoughts on crypto

Follow the besties:

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://www.tiktok.com/@frankielapenna/video/7010077215576575238

https://www.axios.com/2024/12/06/trump-billionaires-cabinet-elon-musk

https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y

https://research.google/blog/suppressing-quantum-errors-by-scaling-a-surface-code-logical-qubit

https://quantumai.google/roadmap

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartmut_Neven

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-slit_experiment

https://www.discovery.com/science/Double-Slit-Experiment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-is-working-on-ai-chip-with-broadcom?rc=pxkrxo

https://x.com/rabois/status/870673635375104000

https://www.amazon.com/Company-Giants-Conversations-Visionaries-Digital/dp/0070329656

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/09/tech/bytedance-tiktok-halt-us-ban-intl/index.html

https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-us-ban-sale-china-congress-de12b4d22aa8095e62cb0982a6e62235

https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-congress-bill-1c48466df82f3684bd6eb21e61ebcb8d

https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/servicetitan-starts-trading-on-nasdaq-after-ipo.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/business/dealbook/ftc-trump-ferguson-khan.html

https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2021/6/15/antitrust

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/convertible-bond-arbs-are-making-microstrategy-wall-street-s-hottest-trade

(0:00) Bestie announcement!

(2:53) Gavin Baker and Joe Lonsdale join the show

(4:14) State of the Trump Bump: Debt focus, Deregulation, America's lucky position

(20:08) Trump nominates Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, replacing Gary Gensler: What this means for crypto and other markets

(41:07) Thoughts on Michael Saylor's Bitcoin play, state of defense tech, and the US/China AI competition

(49:25) xAI's massive GPU cluster, expanding to 1M GPUs, how Grok 3 will test AI scaling laws, and what's next

(1:08:28) UnitedHealth CEO murdered, reactions

Get virtual tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!:

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Follow Gavin Baker:

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Follow Joe Lonsdale:

https://x.com/JTLonsdale

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113603133222686186

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/business/trump-sec-paul-atkins.html

https://x.com/davidmarcus/status/1862654506774810641

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/convertible-bond-arbs-are-making-microstrategy-wall-street-s-hottest-trade

https://www.ft.com/content/9c0516cf-dd12-4665-aa22-712de854fe2f

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/04/nyregion/brian-thompson-uhc-ceo-shot

https://abcnews.go.com/US/man-shot-chest-midtown-manhattan-masked-gunman-large/story?id=116446382&cid=social_twitter_abcn

https://nypost.com/2024/12/06/media/taylor-lorenz-defends-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-jokes

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(1:54) Breaking down the DOGE roadmap

(24:28) Milei's impact, DOGE's tight timeline, impact on GDP growth, "default sustainable," how to communicate DOGE

(48:11) WW3 risk: Biden's recent escalation

(1:00:43) Science Corner: Fat cells can remember being fat!

Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!:

https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular

Follow the besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

Follow on X:

https://x.com/theallinpod

Follow on Instagram:

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Follow on TikTok:

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Follow on LinkedIn:

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/musk-and-ramaswamy-the-doge-plan-to-reform-government-supreme-court-guidance-end-executive-power-grab-fa51c020

https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/1859364239229821022

https://x.com/sfliberty/status/1858936359949304105

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1859946626271388068

https://x.com/realdogenews/status/1859233043686334791

https://x.com/popeye31jc/status/1859233598328492360

https://x.com/MattForVA/status/1859248996377612755

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi

https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1858258226199818595

https://x.com/Pismo_B/status/1858018620456186221

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/biden-authorizes-ukraine-missiles-russian-targets/index.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08165-7

https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1860022160833806646

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(7:57) Election impact on Bitcoin, crypto, and fintech stocks

(21:56) M&A and IPOs: What to expect in 2025

(39:52) Pharma advertising on cable tv: Should it be allowed? Is big pharma buying influence?

(58:17) FBI raids Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home

(1:05:51) Trump's transition picks: Strategy, highest upside/downside, and more

Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!:

https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular

Follow the besties:

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Follow on X:

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Follow on Instagram:

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Follow on LinkedIn:

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-remarks-pli-s-56th-annual-institute-securities-regulation-111424

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10

https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/cpi-inflation-october-2024.html

https://x.com/elerianm/status/1857297087010107728

https://x.com/chamath/status/1359248379377762310

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/4763/text

https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/statistics

https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q2-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1848055198494728496

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/business/media/msnbc-fox-news-ratings-election.html

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1856208378541769076

https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/PDFFiles/Mark-Zuckerberg-Letter-on-Govt-Censorship.pdf

https://www.cjr.org/the_trump_reader/trump-threatens-new-york-times-penguin-random-house-critical-coverage.php

https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/business/fbi-seizes-polymarket-ceos-phone-electronics-after-betting-platform-predicts-trump-win-source

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarket-investigated-by-doj-for-letting-us-users-bet-on-platform

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-ruling-letting-kalshiex-list-election-betting-contracts-2024-10-02

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceo-shayne-coplans-apartment-seizes-phone-source-rcna180180

https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1856838409861386722

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22

https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1856808022481539192

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers

https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1852863585375977877

https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1857237886736715971

https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1856725762130260383

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(4:55) Sacks recaps election night at Mar-a-Lago

(8:28) Analyzing the results: how Trump won, why Kamala and the Democratic Party lost

(25:55) The failing Democratic coalition, campaign spend disparity, Trump's advantage in earned media

(37:59) What mattered most: Policy, Candidate, or Campaign?

(50:44) GOP will likely win House and Senate, potential cabinet positions, avoiding neocons

(1:10:42) Cabinet positions, shaking up the unelected bureaucratic branch

(1:28:47) California rejects progressives

(1:35:17) Abortion laws being settled around the US

Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!:

https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular

Follow the besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

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https://x.com/friedberg

Follow on X:

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Follow on Instagram:

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Follow on TikTok:

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Follow on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1854192602985255042

https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president

https://x.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1854515791690953066

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e8-KX3XKL8

https://x.com/Jason/status/1854209590424121464

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1854045298475110779

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1854342908356297068

https://x.com/arifleischer/status/1854270972775305291

https://www.fec.gov/data/spending-bythenumbers/?office=P

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-11-01/16-billion-will-be-spent-in-the-2024-election-wheres-it-all-going

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1829383729284067659

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-very-fine-people

https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1840977783247286429

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024

https://polymarket.com/event/house-control-after-2024-election

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1854536321282519396

https://www.instagram.com/p/DCFJ4mlsmEG/?hl=en

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1854202717637411199

https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-chevron-curtailing-power-of-federal-agencies

https://x.com/chamath/status/1854229735477551600

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/la-district-attorney-progressive-loses-re-election-gascon-rcna175906

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-abortion.html

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(5:40) US Real GDP growth comes in at 2.8%, but there are underlying issues

(29:16) Google earnings: YouTube and Cloud post huge quarters, would they have survived outside of Google?

(36:24) Sacks's idea to auction off public spectrum licenses of major broadcast networks

(42:17) How the media became one of the least trusted institutions in the US

(54:26) Why Joe Rogan's interview with Trump was not appearing in YouTube search results

(1:08:54) Final pre-election segment: how it's tracking, election integrity, voter fraud stats

Get notified for the Election Night Livestream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4Xaqgd9-Ro

Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!:

https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular

Follow the besties:

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https://x.com/Jason

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Follow on X:

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Follow on Instagram:

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Follow on TikTok:

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Follow on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10

https://x.com/freesites_com/status/1851615700869144908

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/dropbox-slashes-20percent-of-global-workforce-eliminating-500-roles.html

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

https://www.commercebank.com/about-us/prime-rate-update

https://www.fdic.gov/system/files/2024-05/unrealized-gains-losses-on-investment-securities.png

https://abc.xyz/assets/71/a5/78197a7540c987f13d247728a371/2024q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/google-cfo-says-company-can-push-a-little-further-in-cost-savings.html

https://variety.com/2024/digital/news/youtube-q3-2024-advertising-revenue-growth-1236193926

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1818467743479542130

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861/media-confidence-matches-2016-record-low.aspx

https://news.gallup.com/poll/508169/historically-low-faith-institutions-continues.aspx

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/24/americans-trust-in-media-plummets-to-historic-low-poll

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1850277560816681255

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1850979360037356001/photo/1

https://x.com/davidsacks/status/1844429818554876026

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1851745648313602189

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(3:49) Announcement: Besties are hosting The All-In Holiday Spectacular in San Francisco on December 7th! Get tickets: https://allin.com/events

(9:08) Macro and markets: making sense of unique asset diversions

(27:23) Gen Z's economic cultural movements

(38:28) Reallocating assets for a new period of constraints

(53:52) Election update: Data leans Trump as we enter the home stretch

(1:19:01) Is Starbucks fixable? Or has it hit market saturation?

Get tickets to The All-In Holiday Spectacular:

https://allin.com/events

Follow the besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

Follow on X:

https://x.com/theallinpod

Follow on Instagram:

https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod

Follow on TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod

Follow on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://allin.com/events

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/tudor-jones-is-long-gold-and-bitcoin-as-hedge-fund-titan-believes-all-roads-lead-to-inflation.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stanley-druckenmiller-says-hes-shorting-u-s-bonds-and-staying-out-of-china-1fcf751e

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/cpi-inflation-september-2024.html

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-tax-report-international/uk-budget-fears-push-owners-to-close-firms-to-avoid-tax-hikes

https://www.banque-france.fr/en/statistics/compagnies/business-failures-france-2024-09

https://www.reuters.com/markets/brazil-inflation-expectations-above-target-says-cenbank-director-picchetti-2024-10-23

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/14/more-than-half-of-gen-z-want-to-be-influencers-but-its-constant.html

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analyst-reports/influencer-marketing-trends-report

https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/ruminating-on-asset-allocation

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/polymarket-trump-french-election-bet.html

https://x.com/scubaryan_/status/1848072120699625968

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/video/border-wall-kamala-harris-cnn-town-hall-digvid

https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1849467713711710699

https://x.com/scubaryan_/status/1848072120699625968

https://awfulannouncing.com/barstool/dave-portnoy-turned-down-kamala-harris-interview.html

https://investor.starbucks.com/news/financial-releases/news-details/2024/Starbucks-Reports-Preliminary-Q4-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx

(0:00) Bestie intros

(2:01) Polls vs Prediction markets, dueling interviews, election update

(16:06) Tesla's Robotaxi event and SpaceX's Starship catch

(27:36) Uber reportedly looking into acquiring Expedia

(45:19) Nuclear Vibe Shift? Big tech is looking toward nuclear solutions to power AI

(1:11:10) Lawfare from the California Coastal Commission

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1729285428575

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1846826782797799580

https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1845472475322462468

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1839424008900477354

https://www.ft.com/content/94a25bf7-e62b-462a-a4f0-e4feb6e244f7

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EXPE:NASDAQ

https://companiesmarketcap.com/expedia/revenue

https://x.com/Jason/status/1847016512583786921

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/16/amazon-goes-nuclear-investing-more-than-500-million-to-develop-small-module-reactors.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/14/google-inks-deal-with-nuclear-company-as-data-center-power-demand-surges.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/20/constellation-energy-to-restart-three-mile-island-and-sell-the-power-to-microsoft.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/california-coastal-commission-elon-musk-00184017

(0:00) Announcement from Friedberg

(0:18) Besties intro JD Vance!

(3:33) America's innovation problem

(5:04) Thoughts on Trump

(8:53) Would JD Vance have certified the election in 2020?

(12:02) Increasing government efficiency, shrinking the deficit, Vance's role as VP, thoughts on EOs

(19:35) Political realignment: Dick Cheney endorses Kamala Harris, winners and losers of the last 30 years

(23:58) Thoughts on Lina Khan clamping down on tech M&A and her impact on the startup ecosystem

(25:55) Fixing the Southern Border

(32:16) How to practically approach deportations, who's coming in through the Southern Border?

(36:51) Relationship with China

Follow JD Vance:

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Follow the besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

Follow on X:

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Follow on Instagram:

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect