Paris Perspective #27: Fear and loathing on the campaign trail 2022 - Gérald Olivier

With only a few days to go before approximately 48 million registered voters are invited to cast their ballot in France’s first round of presidential elections, Paris Perspective looks at the polemics that have shaped the campaign trails to date and the probabilities of the outcome of round one on Sunday 10 April. 

In the final days ahead of France's first round of presidential elections, all 12 contenders are tightening their resolve to convince the electorate that their vision of the future is the best for France and its people.

However, both the Right and Left of France’s political spectrum have found it difficult to find a “silver bullet” that can take down Emmanuel Macron’s track record over the past 5 years – like navigating protests, pandemics and Putin – without such criticism blowing up in their face and compromising their campaign.

When the aspirations of political contenders started making the headlines over 6 months ago, there was plenty of chatter about the staging of American-style primaries and open debates to solidify individual candidates' chances. 

Most of the veterans on France's right-wing outright refused to be drawn into what they saw as televised grand-standing, which would be a divisive rather than unifying force.

On the splintered Left, a “People’s Primary” plebiscite held in late 2021 has done more damage than good for the democratic process, let alone France's left-wing, when veteran Socialist minister Christiane Taubira came out on top of the “popular primary”.

However, the directors who organized the process gave their backing to far-left France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon instead, leaving many disillusioned and angry at the whole experiment, begging the question - where will France's Left turn after after the 1st round of the presidentials on 10 April?

No more "American-style" primaries 

First and foremost, says author and political strategist Gérald Olivier, the whole affair has been "the final nail in the coffin of French primaries, that just don't work."

"Primaries are meant for the general population - like a pre-vote before the vote. It may work for the US because of the size of the country and the way parties are structured there, but it does not work here," Olivier explains. 

So what we have seen at the end of this process is a Left which is completely scattered, split and divided. 

For the two front runners on the Left - Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo and France Unbowed contender Jean-Luc Mélenchon - their combined percentage points have them hovering at 20%, meaning a left-wing candidate in the second round is incredibly unlikely. 

It is true to say, with the benefit of hindsight and empirical knowledge, it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent from office in time of crisis.

So with Macron chairing the EU presidency while the continent is reeling from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent economic fall-out from the conflict, is it a given that the leader of La République en Marche will waltz back into Elysée Palace?

Olivier agrees that this is the outcome most people expect, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

"It's pretty clear that he will be on the second ballot," he says. "And he might be facing Marine Le Pen again. He might be facing Valérie Pécress from Les Républicains ... There was a time when everybody thought that Eric Zemmour was going to be the major surprise of this election [but] I think the conflict in Ukraine brought down his hopes."

The far-right contender held a very positive opinion of Vladimir Putin until the February invasion and has seen his numbers drop in the polls.

In the second round - in a scenario that would play to Macron's advantage - "we might have simply a repeat of 2017," Olivier says, when Le Pen lost the presidency.

French Presidential Elections 2022 - The candidates and the policies - Part 1 French Presidential Elections 2022 - The candidates and the policies - Part 2

Digging for dirt that just won't stick

Emmanuel Macron has been running an extremely short 40-day campaign. The question is whether there is any political ammunition that could be used against the President between now and 10 April and thus could be detrimental to his re-election?

A recent senate inquiry into up to €1 billion of tax payers money being paid to consultancy groups - dubbed "The McKinsey Report" - threatened to rattle the Macron re-election campaign over rumblings that zero taxes were paid on the consultancy groups' earnings. 

"Too little too late," Olivier jibes. "The bottom line is, though these things matter, they might be explored after the vote but it's not going to change [the outcome] of the vote in just 10 days' time."

Many French people are indeed disappointed with Macron, but he holds the advantage of the incumbent.

"He does not need to campaign as the front runner - the other guys need the attention; the other guys need the limelight. All he has to do is hold his ground, and he's holding it very well", Olivier adds.

"Macron is basically waiting to see who he will face for the second ballot, and on the night of 10 April, he will change or adapt his stance according to who that person is.

"But right now, it is running to his advantage for him to be presidential and not to be a candidate, especially in a time of international crisis ... when you look at it, the events of the past few weeks have worked in his favour."

The political price of pro-Putin politics 

The Ukraine crisis has hit the main far-right candidates hard – Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour both caught out by their previous expressions of admiration for Vladimir Putin. Despite recently archived footage of an ebullient Le Pen being given the red-carpet treatment during a visit to the Kremlin, it is Zemmour's standing in the polls that that has been most affected.

According to Olivier, Zemmour's credibility has been "tremendously" impacted.

For Le Pen and Zemmour, they have two messages, says the political strategist: "The number one message is the same: anti-immigration, pro-French identity, pro-security, and they hit the same voters on that line."

When you look at the international politics proposed by Eric Zemmour, he has a vision of a new world order - moving beyond NATO - where Russia would have its place as a legitimate world power and France would be freed from US foreign policy.

"That message was perfectly acceptable until Putin changed the rules", Olivier underlines, reminding the world that he believes violence and military force are the right way to resolve political conflict. 

Putin has crossed a line 'that has not been broken since World War Two. Putin has brought the world back to a Cold War era where it is not acceptable to stand with the bad guy. He's the bad guy," Gérald Oliver asserts. 

War in Europe and the shift in voter priorities

Even for Macron, a reorientation of election campaign priorities has had to be undertaken since his shuttle diplomacy to avoid an invasion of Ukraine ultimately failed.

Keeping in mind that the incumbent's reform plans for his first mandate were derailed by the Yellow Vest protests that were put on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic, sky-rocketing fuel and energy prices have returned centre-stage due to the sanctions against Russia. 

This, however, is a problem for everyone, says Olivier - not just Macron. 

"His [Macron's] presence is more reassuring and this is something in his favour. But what we can see is the complete change in priorities when you listen to voters.

"All of a sudden, the two priorities that are on people's mind are energy and food.

"Forget the climate, forget global warming, even immigration. Immigration is now number four or number five in voters' priorities, because the war in Ukraine has changed everything," Olivier underlines.

It is curious to say, but for the first time in decades the potential result of a French election could be decided by events outside of France's national borders. Energy autonomy and food security have risen to the top of the electorate's concerns.

"People are worried about having bread", concludes Olivier, "which is something that has been completely unheard for at least for the past eighty years."

Watch full video here

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey.

Recorded and edited by Vincent Pora, Nicolas Doreau and Erwan Rome

Gérald Olivier is an author and political strategist with the IPSE Institute in Paris