Paris Perspective #28: Foreign policy and the rise of French populism - Robert James Oliver

As France heads to the polls this Sunday for the second round of the presidential election, with incumbent Emmanuel Macron facing a strong challenge from far-right contender Marine Le Pen, Paris Perspective looks at the rise of populism in France and how it might effect international relations, particularly with the United States. 

Since the beginning of Putin's war in Ukraine, NATO, the transatlantic alliance founded to contain any war on the European continent, has been resurrected as Washington's bulwark against Russian aggression.

Only recently, President Macron called the organisation "brain dead". Le Pen called it a "Cold War relic" and the entire organisation was facing an existential threat until the Ukraine invasion.

Now NATO has invited itself back into the presidential debate, and become a focal point of the foreign policy platforms of each candidate.

If she were to win the French presidency, Marine Le Pen says Paris would repeat France's 1966 move of leaving NATO's integrated military command all while adhering to its key article 5 on mutual protection.

Once the war in Ukraine comes to an end, she says, there should be a "strategic rapprochement" between NATO and Russia.

A French exit would essentially withdraw the only EU nuclear power from the command structure of the US-led military alliance of 30 countries.

State of play between France and the United States

As France looked "across the pond" during the United States 2020 presidential elections, many were expecting a massive re-set in relations between traditional European allies and the White House when Joe Biden beat the mercurial Donald Trump, but that didn’t really happen.

The world looked aghast at Biden's shambolic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and France had a diplomatic meltdown in August 2021 when a submarine deal with Australia was undercut by a US-UK nuclear deal, the so-called AUKUS fiasco. 

So eight months later, and a potential reset of France's agenda in the Elysée Palace in play, how do relations stand between Paris and Washington? 

"They're going pretty well in everyone's opinion," says Robert James Oliver, political analyst and active member of Republicans in France.

"Just a few months ago we had the Vice President Kamala Harris visiting Paris. But relationships aren't necessarily between countries as much as they are between the individuals running them. With somebody like Biden he's not all that offensive."

However, the seismic shift in international diplomacy and the rejuvenation of traditional alliances didn't happen, and the last 18 months have seen the Biden administration maintaining the status quo on US foreign policy. 

Oliver says that it's not exactly the status quo inherited from the Trump presidency but the transatlantic relationship is a bit warmer than it was.

"I would say that's because of the personalities that are involved. The United States has come out of a long period of apologising to the rest of the world. People in the US want their jobs back. So they are still "America First" and there are still people who don't believe that they should have to give up everything for for a foreign country."

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Despite EU concerns, the USA calls the shots

Despite the shuttle diplomacy prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - spearheaded by President Macron - the European Union was quite unsettled by being side-lined by both Washington and Moscow in the negotiations.

Was that a calculated snub from the Biden administration to the technocrats in Brussels or just normal US foreign policy tactics when dealing with Putin?

Oliver believes it's a little bit of everything. "You have the European Union, which is about 400 million people scattered through 27 states, some sharing a currency, some not. Each state is a sovereign country with its own its own military force - NATO is an amalgamation of them."

"The United States, which is individual states, under one sovereign government under one currency that's guaranteed by the federal government,is different.

"Who guarantees the EU? What is it backed up by? It's the same thing with NATO. What's backing up NATO? NATO is essentially 400 million people in Europe plus 350 million in the United States, with the United States being a far stronger power, with atomic weapons." 

So when it comes to dealing with potential aggressors, Washington will lay claim to have the upper hand in negotiations. 

"NATO was created by the United States so that wars would be contained in Europe," Oliver underlines.

So if France were to pull out of NATO’s military command, as suggested by Marine Le Pen, how would that wash with Washington?

"You mean if France were to pull out again?" Oliver laughs. "And so France is back in NATO. Really? Can we have our next discussion at the French NATO base here in France? Can we have our discussion there? Because I don't think we're going to find it!" 

The political analyst believes that France's role in NATO remains hazy.

"We don't know what kind of a player France is in NATO. They've been very supportive militarily. But in actually stepping up to the plate, that's questionable."

Unlike the Norwegians who are very much involved, and have been since the end of World War Two. 

"I was recently in Norway in September," Oliver explains "and I saw their exercises and what they do. They showed me one of the fjords where they have sonar plates to specifically catch the Russians when they sneak in. So they're a very, very strong ally."

"Today we have this situation where Europe is forced to defend Europe with the backing of NATO once again. But the whole [Ukraine invasion] is backfiring on Putin rather than weakening Europe.

"He's actually strengthened it with countries that never before wanted to be a part of NATO like Finland actually speaking about joining", Oliver says.  

Political repercussions

Following her comments on NATO and her continued Euroskepticism, if Marine Le Pen manages to unseat Macron, how would her rise to power be greeted by the Biden administration?

"I don't know how similar Trump and Le Pen are today! To tell you the truth I'm not sure she will unseat Macron but if she does, you still have a congress, you still have a parliament here in France - a very strong parliament.

"It's doubtful she'll get everything she wishes for, but she will scare the daylights out of people for a while! Her image is not a good one in the world," Oliver asserts.

However, will the rise of far-right populism in France have any effect on the Trumpist factions of US society in the run-up to mid-term elections in November? 

For Oliver you first have to distinguish between the politicians running Washington and the average person in the street.

"When you start to talk about the average guy in the street, they don't know anything about French politics.

"The people on the street understand France from a perspective, when there's an issue of whether France is on our side or not on our side", says Oliver. When France refused to join the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, "there were people in front of the French Embassy on Fifth Avenue, pouring bottles of French wine down the drain. We were laughing with friends while taking a French class then at Alliance Français," quips Oliver.

"These people are so stupid! They already bought the wine, why didn't they just drink it and not buy anymore?"

Any lessons learned from Trump and Brexit?

When it comes to the French electorate, many are asking how the far-right has risen so far in the polls, despite the brutal lessons learned after four years of Donald Trump in the White House. 

For Oliver, a lot of Le Pen's rhetoric is "hot air". Following the lines of Brexiteer Nigel Farage won't work for Le Pen, when she mentions "restructuring" the European Union as an association of sovereign states. 

"We can see the similarities, but will Le Pen actually pull out of the EU?" Oliver questions. 

No matter who wins the election on Sunday, Franco-US relations will remain top of the presidential agenda over the next five years. Oliver says that underlining France's support for the United States remains central to everything, and is more important than France's internal politics. 

"Brexit had no effect on Americans. If you're going to fly on a family vacation to London, you're still going to pay in pounds, whether or not England is part of the EU," says Oliver.

"But NATO would be something Americans would pay a lot of attention to, as they did when De Gaulle took them out in the 1960s. That would be a shock," concludes Oliver. 

And making sure that France and the US are still on the same page when it comes to tackling Russia or any threat to NATO would be paramount. 

Watch full video here.

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey.

Recorded and edited by Vincent Pora and Erwan Rome

Robert James Oliver is a political analyst and active member of Republicans in France based in Paris.