Paris Perspective #23: Taking the temperature of the French electorate - Bruno Jeanbart

With just two months to go before presidential elections in France, the media swingometer continually points to a concrete shift to the right. On this end of the political spectrum, candidates are rallying the electorate with identical battle cries: more security on the streets and playing hard on immigration. Paris Perspective looks into the issues that matter most to the French electorate. 

France is entering into uncharted waters in the run up to April polls, as the intractable power of social networks and the tacit political manoeuvering of media outlets finally catch up with French politics. 

On the face of it, one would be forgiven for thinking the hard-right was comprehensively in the ascendant with tough talk on immigration and security cramming the airwaves, internet and "twittersphere".

With all sides taking stock of the paradigm shift in US politics in 2016, and the vulnerability of the democratic process to cyber-meddling, France is bracing itself for a bumpy ride on the hustings peppered with populism, patriotism and paranoia.   

In these cynical times, no matter what the realities are on the ground, political spin doctors will claim that pre-election polls are open to interpretation and statistics can be manipulated. 

The state of play ahead of the elections

As things stand, if the French were to vote next weekend, President Emmanuel Macron remains solidly in front, hovering around the 25 percent mark.

On his heels are far-right National Rally's Marine Le Pen and the more moderate right-winger Valérie Pécresse, who are both vacillating around 17 percent.

And among the panoply of left-wing candidates, only the far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes any blip on the radar, but still fails to score double-digits. 

But two months is an eon in politics, as the vice president of pollsters Opinion Way Bruno Jeanbart explains.

"We have to be careful about the data for the moment because we are still far from the election. The closer we are to the vote, the better the polls will be when comparing with the final result," he says.

"Fifty days before the election is too far away to be sure that what is shown by the data is going to be what will will occur at the polling station."

But amid the inevitable campaign-trail cries of "fake news" and "false polls" that the world has become used to since 2016, Jeanbart maintains the statistics are usually sound: "I don't think it's possible [for polls] to be manipulated, but they can be wrong."

Breaking the rules in 2017

In the past, French presidential elections were traditionally quite predictable, with the ultimate dichotomy falling in favour of either the centre-left or the centre-right. But all that changed in 2017, when Macron hit the scene, breaking all the rules. 

To make it to the top in France, says Jeanbart, you routinely needed a history in politics: "You needed to have a long political career, to have been elected before – as a mayor or as an MP – you needed to be supported by a political party."

And none of that was the case for Macron. Jeanbart reckons what happened in 2017 was the consequence of a rejection by the population and voters of the traditional left and right.

And for Macron, a young former investment banker, the political stars aligned in his favour after president François Hollande imploded the traditional left by not standing for a second term, while the centre-right Les Républicains collapsed in the wake of a nepotism scandal that put an end to front-runner François Fillon's political career.

Macron went on to take the laurels for the Elysée Palace, decisively defeating Le Pen in the second round of the presidentials. 

The social divide on France's right

Fast forward to the 2022, where the battle to dethrone Macron is being thrashed-out among the right-wing candidates playing hard-ball with immigration and security portrayed as the pivotal issues.

While Le Pen and Pécresse clamour to win the hearts of both the moderate and more extreme elements of the right, little appears to distinguish the two candidates at first.

The key in distiguishing them, says Jeanbart, is the socio-economic status of their core electorate.

"The difference between Le Pen and Pécresse is the base that they have as voters. Le Pen is very strong with blue collar workers, people with low incomes, low levels of education.

"This is not the case with Pécresse, who is a much more traditional, conservative candidate, strong with white collar workers, people with high levels of education and with older voters.

"Le Pen is much stronger with young voters."

What is Macron's Achilles' Heel? 

And with a solid shift to the right ahead of April's polls, French nationalism is playing its part, as candidates promise a crusade to "clean up" ghettoised areas, reclaim “non-French” neighbourhoods and to reconquer "no-go" zones.

But is that really what scores highest on the agenda for the average French voter?

Jeanbart recognises its importance, but when he looks at the data the most important issue (for now) is purchasing power.

"The increase in prices tops the bill with the French population, followed in second place by the rise in crime," he says. 

"Immigration is fourth. But it shows that traditional right-wing issues are very, very important among the French population, and this explains why we have this high level of voter intentions on the far right.

"Le Pen and Zemmour are both gathering about 30 percent of voters' intentions, which is incredibly high."

Essentially right-wing candidates have taken control of the narrative, concentrating on emotional issues that can be presented as Macron's Achilles' Heel.

"It's more difficult to attack him on the pandemic crisis or the economy," Jeanbart adds. Covid notwithstanding, France has recorded an unprecedented 7 percent growth in its economy, not seen since the end of World War II.

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Chaos on the Left works well for the Centrists

One thing that does play in Macron's favour is the disarray amongst France's left-wing parties. 

Despite suggestions of a "grand coalition" regrouping all the Socialist, Communist and Green candidates into a left-wing confederacy, the concept appears to be doomed from the outset. 

"It's mess on the left," with all eight candidates collectively polling an exceptionally low 25 percent. 

"The one thing the left doesn't accept is ... that a strong part of their [voter base] are still voting for Emmanuel Macron."

These were the ones who brought Macron to power in 2017, "and they are still supporting him now".

The best and worst case scenarios for Macron's re-election

But with Macron's first five-year mandate eclipsed by Covid, it was also shaken to its foundations by the Yellow Vest movement, which exploded onto the streets of France over the rising cost of fuel.

From late 2018 until the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the increasingly violent demonstrations underlined the ever-widening chasm between urban and rural France.

So what is the best case scenario for Macron to regain the confidence of the electorate in 2022? And indeed, what is the worst case scenario for the incumbent? 

Jeanbart maintains the best case is for Macron to maintain the status quo he created that brought him to power, "which is gathering the traditional parties – the centre left and centre right – together."

These voters are the ones who are pro-European, pro-business and who will stand with him in the face of rising populism.

Securing a second round run-off against Le Pen is the best way to present himself as 'the reasonable candidate against the populist".

The worst case scenario is that Pécresse beats Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election, and qualifies for the run-off against Macron. 

"If she gets in on the second round, she has a pretty good chance of beating Macron," Jeanbart says.

Macron is in a strange situation as an incumbent, he adds, with very strong support from a small base of 25 to 30 percent of the population. "But also a lot of people hate him."

If Pécresse makes it to the second-round, Macron will lose a lot of votes – not because the far-right is convinced by Pécresse," says Jeanbart, adding they think she's too moderate.

"They would prefer Pécresse rather than see Macron re-elected for a second term."

Watch full video here.

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey.

Recorded and edited by Cécile Pompeani and Erwan Rome.

Bruno Jeanbart is the vice president of Opinion Way, a research and polling agency based in Paris.